雅虎科技2023十大預測
What’s going to happen to the tech world in 2023? While of course no one really knows for sure, it’s possible to make a few semieducated guesses. Here are 10 predictions for the biggest tech trends for the coming year — from the blindingly obvious to the wildly speculative.
2023年科技界會有什么樣的新發現？沒有人可以給出肯定的答復，但這并不妨礙我們作出一些簡單猜測。以下是2023年十大科技動向，其中有的是板上釘釘，有的只是大膽推測。
1. Apple will unveil a new Watch and a new iPhone
蘋果公司將發布新一代Apple Watch和iPhone
This is the easiest prediction in the world, which is why we started with it (guaranteeing that at least one of these will be right).
這是鐵定的事實，也是我們之所以把它放在開頭的原因（至少能保證這十大預測有一個是真的）。
Apple is expected to release Apple Watch 2.0 sometime this spring, we hope with an improved interface and a lot more apps. And next fall will see the release of the iPhone 7, which (if rumors are to be believed) will include a fingerprint sensor on the screen, wireless charging, multiple cameras, and a USB-C port instead of power or headphone jacks.
蘋果有望在明年春發布Apple Watch 2.0，屆時其界面或許能有所改進，應用數量也能有所增加。iPhone 7將在明天秋發布，據傳其在屏幕上增加了指紋傳感器，還具備無線充電功能，配有多攝像頭，并用USB-C接口取代了原有的電源和耳機接口。
2. Apple’s dominance of tech culture will decline
蘋果的統治力將有所下降
Since the Second Coming of Jobs in 1997, interest in all things Apple has been climbing at a steady rate, going into hyperdrive with the release of the iPhone (2007) and then the iPad (2010). Lately, though, the products coming out of Cupertino have been less than magical and life-changing.
1997年喬布斯重回蘋果公司后，蘋果漸漸開始吸引大眾的目光，后分別于2007年和2010年推出iPhone和iPad，引起了巨大轟動。而如今雖然蘋果產品層出不窮，其創意和影響力卻不比當年。
And for all of Tim Cook’s many fine qualities, he can’t generate a reality distortion field the way his predecessor could. Until Cook manages to pull another rabbit out of his iHat — an Apple Car? a fully integrated smart home? — the Apple mystique has clearly peaked. Nowhere to go but down.
盡管庫克也推出了許多優秀產品，但他卻不具備前任喬布斯那樣的“現實扭曲力場，除非他也能變戲法般地弄出個Apple Car或是一體化自能家居什么的來。蘋果的創意已經達到上限，現在只能走下坡路了。
3. Virtual reality will finally be real — and most people will go ‘meh’
虛擬現實或將成真，而消費者只能望洋興嘆
After nearly four years of teasing us, the Oculus Rift VR headset will finally reach consumers this year, probably some time in the early spring. HTC’s Vive and Sony’s Playstation VR (formerly Morpheus) will likely appear a few months after that. And no matter how awesome they are — and odds are they will be pretty awesome — very few people will buy them.
放了四年鴿子，Oculus Rift虛擬現實眼鏡終于要問世了！發售時間為今年或是明年春初。HTC的Vive和索尼的Playstation VR（原名Morpheus）也將在之后的幾個月問世。這都是些使人眼前為之一亮的產品，但不管這些設備多酷多棒，只有很少一部分人會選擇購買。
Why? They’ll likely be expensive, require vast amounts of computing power, and be limited mostly to games and porn (ewww). The fact is, after four years of hype, VR headsets can’t possibly live up to expectations. And then there’s the whole after-15-minutes-you-feel-like-puking factor (10 minutes if you’re watching porn). VR will find a niche audience, at best, for a long time to come.
究其原因，這些設備主要用于游戲和色情音像（呃），擁有強大的計算能力，其價格可能會高得離譜。而另一方面，這些虛擬現實眼鏡被熱炒了四年，最終可能難以達到大眾的期望值。這種眼鏡戴上15分鐘就讓人忍不住想吐（如果看的是色情片只要10分鐘），可想而知，在未來的很長一段時間內，這頂多只能是一種小眾產品。
4. AR will beat up VR and steal its lunch money
增強現實將與虛擬現實爭奪市場
While the world oohs, ahhs, and hurls over VR (but doesn’t buy it), Augmented Reality (AR) will infiltrate all kinds of industries, from design and engineering to architecture, education, and medicine. Why? Being less immersive — you can actually see the world around you, as well as virtual objects — makes AR much more practical.
當世人還在驚嘆于虛擬現實產品（但又不買）的時候，增強現實技術已開始滲透到各個領域，從建筑設計、建造，到教育行業，再到醫療行業。這是因為增強現實技術的仿真度要相對低些，人們可以獲得真實的感官體驗，還包括虛擬物品。這大大增強了技術的實用性。
Microsoft just released a new version of its HoloLens and will begin shipping $3,000 HoloLens development kits this spring. Google Glass will also emerge from the rock it’s been hiding under since its ill-fated debut, most likely aimed at industrial use.
微軟剛剛推出一款全新的全息眼鏡，并將于明天春推出價值三千美元的開發套件。而谷歌眼鏡首次問世反響不佳，在雪藏了一段時間后也將重出江湖，很可能是面向工業用途。
5. Comcast will try to acquire Netflix — or possibly vice versa
康卡斯特或將收購網飛公司，亦或是被網飛公司收購
Whether or not you’re a cord-cutter, streaming media is the future of entertainment — and nobody streams bigger than Netflix, which accounted for nearly 40 percent of all Internet traffic last year. Since big cable can’t beat the streamers at this game, the only thing left is for it to join them by acquisition; Comcast ($192 billion valuation) and Netflix ($42 billion) are the most logical candidates for an arranged marriage. While it stands to reason that the larger company will swallow the smaller one, it’s not inconceivable that the reverse will happen — not unlike AOL’s acquisition of Time Warner 15 years ago, but perhaps with better results.
不管你是否承認，流媒體都將是娛樂業的發展趨勢。而在這方面沒有誰比網飛公司做得更大了。去年網飛公司就占據了網絡總流量的百分之四十。強強爭斗沒有結果，唯有收購這一條出路。現在康卡斯特（價值1920億美元）和網飛公司（價值420億美元）最有可能走到一起。雖然一般情況下是大公司吞并小公司，但也不排除相反的情況——15年前美國在線就曾收購時代華納。但與之相比，康卡斯特和網飛的合并或許會有更好的結果。
6. Antidrone technology will rise
反無人機技術將出現
The only thing people love more than reading about drones is hating them — witness all the cheering when a Kentucky man blasted one out of the sky with his shotgun last July. (Not to mention all the animals that love to attack drones.) Look for companies to come up with antidrone technology that use nonballistic methods of ridding the flight zones of these pests. Let the games begin, and let the odds be ever in the antidrones’ favor.
雖然人們對無人機技術充滿興趣，但卻抑制不住對無人機的厭惡之感。今年七月，肯塔基州的一名男子開槍打下了一架無人機，引起了圍觀者的歡呼（更別說還有很多動物也喜歡攻擊無人機了）。現在有的公司正開發反無人機技術，這種技術不用槍彈，而是采用了一種擠占無人機飛機空間的方法。好戲就要開始，希望這項技術真能派上用場。
7. Facebook will continue to eat the world
Facebook將繼續主宰世界
The Facebook juggernaut will continue, though most of its membership growth will be overseas. However, expect a public backlash as Facebook assumes just a bit too much control over the media it arbitrarily delivers to everyone’s feeds. How many autoplay videos of bacon, egg, and cheese breadboats can one person watch?
隨著海外用戶的增加，Facebook將繼續主宰世界。然而人們現在抗議Facebook管得太寬，人們不得不被迫看一些自己不想看的視頻。可以統計一下，現在每個人要在Facebook上看多少次培根、雞蛋和芝士面包的自動播放的視頻？
8. Cyberterrorists will attack the Internet
網絡恐怖主義來襲
We’ve seen targeted hack attacks on a massive scale, and we’ve seen state-sponsored cyberespionage. In 2023 we will see them converge, with a direct attack on the Internet infrastructure motivated by politics, not greed or misplaced juvenile aggression. Time to back up your data, encrypt your hard drives, and stock up on beef jerky and tinfoil.
我們目睹過大規模的黑客攻擊，也見識過國家支持的網絡間諜活動。在新的一年里它們將結合起來，在政治目的的驅動下直接對網絡基礎設施展開攻擊，而不再是憤青們的盲目行為。所以，是時候備份數據，加密硬盤，囤積好牛肉干和錫紙了。
9. There will be an Uber for friends
朋友出租服務將上線
Need a date for a party or someone to hang with at a ballgame? Just share someone else’s. Frog Design predicts the rise of “friendship as a service in 2023. We liked that prediction so much we decided to borrow it. Isn’t that what the sharing economy is all about?
想參加聚會、想打球但卻苦于找不到伴嗎？完全可以從別人那租一個來！據青蛙設計公司（Frog Design）預測，“朋友出租服務將于2023年上線。有需求就可以租，這和“分享型經濟不是同一個道理嗎？
10. Your next boss may be an algorithm
老板也許會是機器人
Artificial intelligence will continue to be baked into an increasing number of devices and services. More than that, though, entire companies may be built around self-running programs, with business decisions made without any human intervention. Think we’re joking? The first decentralized organizations are already being developed for the Ethereum Frontier network. We have met our robotic overlords, and we’d like a 10 percent raise and more flex time, please.
人工智能技術將運用到更多的產品和服務中去。甚至整個公司都有可能實現自動運作。通過編排程序，商業決策或許不需要人的參與。這可不是開玩笑，以太坊（Ethereum）的Frontier平臺就在實行分散性運作。這么說我們的老板也許會是機器人。那么請給我加薪百分之十再給我更多的彈性時間吧，老板！
Vocabulary
niche: 小眾的
augmented reality: 增強現實
juggernaut: 使人盲目崇拜的事物
cyberespionage: 網絡間諜
What’s going to happen to the tech world in 2023? While of course no one really knows for sure, it’s possible to make a few semieducated guesses. Here are 10 predictions for the biggest tech trends for the coming year — from the blindingly obvious to the wildly speculative.
2023年科技界會有什么樣的新發現？沒有人可以給出肯定的答復，但這并不妨礙我們作出一些簡單猜測。以下是2023年十大科技動向，其中有的是板上釘釘，有的只是大膽推測。
1. Apple will unveil a new Watch and a new iPhone
蘋果公司將發布新一代Apple Watch和iPhone
This is the easiest prediction in the world, which is why we started with it (guaranteeing that at least one of these will be right).
這是鐵定的事實，也是我們之所以把它放在開頭的原因（至少能保證這十大預測有一個是真的）。
Apple is expected to release Apple Watch 2.0 sometime this spring, we hope with an improved interface and a lot more apps. And next fall will see the release of the iPhone 7, which (if rumors are to be believed) will include a fingerprint sensor on the screen, wireless charging, multiple cameras, and a USB-C port instead of power or headphone jacks.
蘋果有望在明年春發布Apple Watch 2.0，屆時其界面或許能有所改進，應用數量也能有所增加。iPhone 7將在明天秋發布，據傳其在屏幕上增加了指紋傳感器，還具備無線充電功能，配有多攝像頭，并用USB-C接口取代了原有的電源和耳機接口。
2. Apple’s dominance of tech culture will decline
蘋果的統治力將有所下降
Since the Second Coming of Jobs in 1997, interest in all things Apple has been climbing at a steady rate, going into hyperdrive with the release of the iPhone (2007) and then the iPad (2010). Lately, though, the products coming out of Cupertino have been less than magical and life-changing.
1997年喬布斯重回蘋果公司后，蘋果漸漸開始吸引大眾的目光，后分別于2007年和2010年推出iPhone和iPad，引起了巨大轟動。而如今雖然蘋果產品層出不窮，其創意和影響力卻不比當年。
And for all of Tim Cook’s many fine qualities, he can’t generate a reality distortion field the way his predecessor could. Until Cook manages to pull another rabbit out of his iHat — an Apple Car? a fully integrated smart home? — the Apple mystique has clearly peaked. Nowhere to go but down.
盡管庫克也推出了許多優秀產品，但他卻不具備前任喬布斯那樣的“現實扭曲力場，除非他也能變戲法般地弄出個Apple Car或是一體化自能家居什么的來。蘋果的創意已經達到上限，現在只能走下坡路了。
3. Virtual reality will finally be real — and most people will go ‘meh’
虛擬現實或將成真，而消費者只能望洋興嘆
After nearly four years of teasing us, the Oculus Rift VR headset will finally reach consumers this year, probably some time in the early spring. HTC’s Vive and Sony’s Playstation VR (formerly Morpheus) will likely appear a few months after that. And no matter how awesome they are — and odds are they will be pretty awesome — very few people will buy them.
放了四年鴿子，Oculus Rift虛擬現實眼鏡終于要問世了！發售時間為今年或是明年春初。HTC的Vive和索尼的Playstation VR（原名Morpheus）也將在之后的幾個月問世。這都是些使人眼前為之一亮的產品，但不管這些設備多酷多棒，只有很少一部分人會選擇購買。
Why? They’ll likely be expensive, require vast amounts of computing power, and be limited mostly to games and porn (ewww). The fact is, after four years of hype, VR headsets can’t possibly live up to expectations. And then there’s the whole after-15-minutes-you-feel-like-puking factor (10 minutes if you’re watching porn). VR will find a niche audience, at best, for a long time to come.
究其原因，這些設備主要用于游戲和色情音像（呃），擁有強大的計算能力，其價格可能會高得離譜。而另一方面，這些虛擬現實眼鏡被熱炒了四年，最終可能難以達到大眾的期望值。這種眼鏡戴上15分鐘就讓人忍不住想吐（如果看的是色情片只要10分鐘），可想而知，在未來的很長一段時間內，這頂多只能是一種小眾產品。
4. AR will beat up VR and steal its lunch money
增強現實將與虛擬現實爭奪市場
While the world oohs, ahhs, and hurls over VR (but doesn’t buy it), Augmented Reality (AR) will infiltrate all kinds of industries, from design and engineering to architecture, education, and medicine. Why? Being less immersive — you can actually see the world around you, as well as virtual objects — makes AR much more practical.
當世人還在驚嘆于虛擬現實產品（但又不買）的時候，增強現實技術已開始滲透到各個領域，從建筑設計、建造，到教育行業，再到醫療行業。這是因為增強現實技術的仿真度要相對低些，人們可以獲得真實的感官體驗，還包括虛擬物品。這大大增強了技術的實用性。
Microsoft just released a new version of its HoloLens and will begin shipping $3,000 HoloLens development kits this spring. Google Glass will also emerge from the rock it’s been hiding under since its ill-fated debut, most likely aimed at industrial use.
微軟剛剛推出一款全新的全息眼鏡，并將于明天春推出價值三千美元的開發套件。而谷歌眼鏡首次問世反響不佳，在雪藏了一段時間后也將重出江湖，很可能是面向工業用途。
5. Comcast will try to acquire Netflix — or possibly vice versa
康卡斯特或將收購網飛公司，亦或是被網飛公司收購
Whether or not you’re a cord-cutter, streaming media is the future of entertainment — and nobody streams bigger than Netflix, which accounted for nearly 40 percent of all Internet traffic last year. Since big cable can’t beat the streamers at this game, the only thing left is for it to join them by acquisition; Comcast ($192 billion valuation) and Netflix ($42 billion) are the most logical candidates for an arranged marriage. While it stands to reason that the larger company will swallow the smaller one, it’s not inconceivable that the reverse will happen — not unlike AOL’s acquisition of Time Warner 15 years ago, but perhaps with better results.
不管你是否承認，流媒體都將是娛樂業的發展趨勢。而在這方面沒有誰比網飛公司做得更大了。去年網飛公司就占據了網絡總流量的百分之四十。強強爭斗沒有結果，唯有收購這一條出路。現在康卡斯特（價值1920億美元）和網飛公司（價值420億美元）最有可能走到一起。雖然一般情況下是大公司吞并小公司，但也不排除相反的情況——15年前美國在線就曾收購時代華納。但與之相比，康卡斯特和網飛的合并或許會有更好的結果。
6. Antidrone technology will rise
反無人機技術將出現
The only thing people love more than reading about drones is hating them — witness all the cheering when a Kentucky man blasted one out of the sky with his shotgun last July. (Not to mention all the animals that love to attack drones.) Look for companies to come up with antidrone technology that use nonballistic methods of ridding the flight zones of these pests. Let the games begin, and let the odds be ever in the antidrones’ favor.
雖然人們對無人機技術充滿興趣，但卻抑制不住對無人機的厭惡之感。今年七月，肯塔基州的一名男子開槍打下了一架無人機，引起了圍觀者的歡呼（更別說還有很多動物也喜歡攻擊無人機了）。現在有的公司正開發反無人機技術，這種技術不用槍彈，而是采用了一種擠占無人機飛機空間的方法。好戲就要開始，希望這項技術真能派上用場。
7. Facebook will continue to eat the world
Facebook將繼續主宰世界
The Facebook juggernaut will continue, though most of its membership growth will be overseas. However, expect a public backlash as Facebook assumes just a bit too much control over the media it arbitrarily delivers to everyone’s feeds. How many autoplay videos of bacon, egg, and cheese breadboats can one person watch?
隨著海外用戶的增加，Facebook將繼續主宰世界。然而人們現在抗議Facebook管得太寬，人們不得不被迫看一些自己不想看的視頻。可以統計一下，現在每個人要在Facebook上看多少次培根、雞蛋和芝士面包的自動播放的視頻？
8. Cyberterrorists will attack the Internet
網絡恐怖主義來襲
We’ve seen targeted hack attacks on a massive scale, and we’ve seen state-sponsored cyberespionage. In 2023 we will see them converge, with a direct attack on the Internet infrastructure motivated by politics, not greed or misplaced juvenile aggression. Time to back up your data, encrypt your hard drives, and stock up on beef jerky and tinfoil.
我們目睹過大規模的黑客攻擊，也見識過國家支持的網絡間諜活動。在新的一年里它們將結合起來，在政治目的的驅動下直接對網絡基礎設施展開攻擊，而不再是憤青們的盲目行為。所以，是時候備份數據，加密硬盤，囤積好牛肉干和錫紙了。
9. There will be an Uber for friends
朋友出租服務將上線
Need a date for a party or someone to hang with at a ballgame? Just share someone else’s. Frog Design predicts the rise of “friendship as a service in 2023. We liked that prediction so much we decided to borrow it. Isn’t that what the sharing economy is all about?
想參加聚會、想打球但卻苦于找不到伴嗎？完全可以從別人那租一個來！據青蛙設計公司（Frog Design）預測，“朋友出租服務將于2023年上線。有需求就可以租，這和“分享型經濟不是同一個道理嗎？
10. Your next boss may be an algorithm
老板也許會是機器人
Artificial intelligence will continue to be baked into an increasing number of devices and services. More than that, though, entire companies may be built around self-running programs, with business decisions made without any human intervention. Think we’re joking? The first decentralized organizations are already being developed for the Ethereum Frontier network. We have met our robotic overlords, and we’d like a 10 percent raise and more flex time, please.
人工智能技術將運用到更多的產品和服務中去。甚至整個公司都有可能實現自動運作。通過編排程序，商業決策或許不需要人的參與。這可不是開玩笑，以太坊（Ethereum）的Frontier平臺就在實行分散性運作。這么說我們的老板也許會是機器人。那么請給我加薪百分之十再給我更多的彈性時間吧，老板！
Vocabulary
niche: 小眾的
augmented reality: 增強現實
juggernaut: 使人盲目崇拜的事物
cyberespionage: 網絡間諜
