There are few surer financial warnings than Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of the private equity group Blackstone, throwing a big party. His 60th birthday celebration a decade ago marked the pre-crisis peak for the industry, so the 70th he held last month in Palm Beach, Florida, featuring fireworks, camels, and a cake in the shape of a Chinese temple, is worrying.

再沒有比私人股本集團黑石(Blackstone)聯合創始人蘇世民(Stephen Schwarzman)舉辦的大派對更明確的金融警告了。10年前，他的60歲生日慶祝會標志著危機之前私人股本行業的頂峰，所以上個月他在弗羅里達州棕櫚海灘(Palm Beach)舉辦的70歲生日慶祝會——有煙火、駱駝、中國寺廟形狀的蛋糕——也就令人擔憂了。

Private equity entered a slump after his 2007 party, with the huge debt-financed deals struck at the peak looking stupid with hindsight. Ten years later, it is doing extremely well for itself.

2007年慶祝會之后，私人股本行業進入了一段低迷期，回想起來，之前巔峰時期靠著巨額債務融資達成的交易看起來很愚蠢。10年后，這個行業本身過得很不錯。

As hedge funds stumble and public stock markets are increasingly dominated by passive index funds, veterans such as Mr Schwarzman and Leon Black of Apollo are masters of thei universe.

如今對沖基金步履蹣跚，公共股票市場日益由被動指數基金主導，目前蘇世民和Apollo的里昂?布萊克(Leon Black)等老手儼然成了“宇宙主宰”。

It is a safe bet that this will not last, since it never has before. The global industry gathers every year at a conference called SuperReturn, held in Berlin this week.

我們可以放心地押注這一局面將不會持續下去，因為以前也從來沒有過。全球私人股本行業的人士每年都會聚集在一起，舉行“超級回報”(Super Return)大會。上周，今年的會議在柏林舉行。

The name is not always merited but this year’s resembles a crowded party that could erupt at any moment. Cocky financiers in expensive suits, intoxicated by cheap credit and high dividends? Run for the exits.

超級回報并非總是理所當然的，但今年的聚會就像是一個擁擠的派對，可能隨時擠爆。身著華服、趾高氣昂的金融家們，在廉價信貸和高股息中陶醉？跑向出口吧。

Even this was bearable until Mr Black took to the SuperReturn stage on Monday to declare that, although a correction was probably imminent, it could be postponed by Donald Trump’s pledge of a “revved up” US economy.

甚至這也是可以忍受的，直到布萊克登上超級回報大會的舞臺宣布，盡管一場調整很可能迫在眉睫，但唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有關“振興”美國經濟的承諾，可能會延緩這場調整。

That could unleash a further three years of “turbocharged” growth for leveraged buyouts backed by the $820bn of capital yet to be invested. Then I really got nervous.

這可能為杠桿收購帶來又三年的“渦輪增壓”增長——在尚待投入的8200億美元支持下。那么，我真的緊張了。

Private equity’s problem is not that it is suffering but the opposite: it has recovered so fully that it is flush with money. As it sells the businesses it bought a few years ago, many at a high profit, and returns cash to the pension funds and institutions that invest through it, more is arriving. This is a very good period to be selling assets but a hard one to find a bargain.

私人股本行業的問題，不是它處于煎熬之中，而是相反：它已經徹底復蘇了，資金非常充沛。由于賣掉了幾年前收購的企業（許多情況下是以高利潤賣出），并把資金返還給通過它們進行投資的養老基金和機構，更多資金正在到來。現在是出售資產的好時期，卻是物色便宜資產的困難時期。

The industry should still have advantages even in these heady times. Compared with hedge funds, which also charge stiff fees to invest other people’s money, it has performed well.

即使在這些頭腦過熱的時代，私人股本行業也應當仍有優勢。與同樣收取高昂費用幫人投資的對沖基金相比，私人股本公司的表現很不錯。

Warren Buffett wrote harshly of hedge fund managers in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors, but has partnered with 3G Capital, the Brazilian-led private equity firm.

在每年一度寫給伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)投資者的信中，沃倫?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)嚴厲地批評了對沖基金經理，但與巴西私人股本公司3G資本(3G Capital)站到了同一陣營。

The classic private equity deal is to borrow money to buy a medium-sized company that is in decent shape but has potential to grow or become more efficient. A fund often puts in new managers, allocating them a hefty incentive to improve the business — private equity chief executives get an average 8 per cent stake, according to one study. It then sells at a higher price five years later.

經典的私人股本交易，是借錢購買一個中等規模、經營狀況不錯、有擴大規模或提高效率的潛力的企業。私人股本基金通常安排新的高管進入企業，并為他們提供改善業績的重大激勵——一項研究顯示，私人股本基金的首席執行官平均取得被投資企業8%的股權。5年后，基金以更高價格把企業賣掉。

Having the luxury of privacy and time — not having to worry about quarterly results or investors demanding their money back — helps investments thrive.

在隱私和時間方面擁有難得的優勢——不必擔心季度業績或投資者要求返還資金——有助于投資業績飄紅。

The industry consistently outperformed the stock market up to 2006, one study found, and its long-term performance has recovered from a post-2008 dip.

一項研究發現，私人股本行業在2006年以前一直跑贏股票市場，其長期業績也已從2008年之后的谷底恢復。

But no matter how much leverage and ambition it injects into a company, a private equity fund cannot easily compensate for overpaying.

但是，無論私人股本基金向被投資企業注入多大杠桿和野心，收購價過高會讓他們無法輕易獲得補償。

This is the pressing problem: one investor estimates that his fund must pay 15 or 20 per cent more to buy a company with stable earnings than it did two years ago.

這是當前的迫切問題：據一位投資者估算，他的基金必須支付高出兩年前15%或20%的價格，才能買到一家盈利穩定的公司。

Funds prefer to find companies and take time — sometimes years — to size them up and get to know their founders or executives. The new reality is often that, as one partner describes it: “You get a book sent by Goldman Sachs, one dinner with a camera-ready executive team, and then an auction.”

私人股本基金更喜歡物色企業，然后花費時間（有時是幾年）對之作出評估和了解其創始人或高管。而如今，一名基金合伙人描述道，新的現實經常是，“你得到高盛(Goldman Sachs)寄來的一本書，跟隨時準備拍照的管理團隊吃一頓晚餐，然后就是一場拍賣。”

They are not only competing against each other. The most enthusiastic bidders are often companies in the same industry that can obtain cost savings by integrating a smaller rival. Pension funds are also getting in on the act by co-investing with private equity funds, and sometimes investing directly.

私人股本基金不僅僅是彼此競爭。最熱心的競購者通常是同一行業的公司，通過兼并一家更小的對手可以節省成本。養老基金也參與進來，與私人股本基金共同投資，有時則是直接投資。

The obvious response to an overheated market is to slow down, and even to take a break from investing until prices fall. In theory, this should be an advantage of private equity funds — they do not have to place funds immediately, and will not benefit their investors by rushing.

在過熱的市場，投資明顯應該減速，甚至暫停，直到價格跌下來。在理論上，這應該是私人股本基金的優勢——它們不必立即把錢投出去，倉促投資的話，將不會讓自己的投資人受益。

Most are pressing ahead anyway. They believe they have a unique formula that will keep their investments safe while others overpay. They do not say, although it is true, that they only get rewarded for action. They charge a 1.5 per cent management fee on their investments.

但大多數私人股本基金仍在冒進。它們認為自己掌握著獨特的公式，將保證在其他人出價過高時，自己的投資一直是安全的。它們沒說出來的是——盡管是事實——它們唯有行動起來，才能獲得回報。它們對自己的投資項目收取1.5%的管理費。

If you pay a lot, you need to get value somehow. The danger is that they start treating every company like a distressed asset to obtain a return, even if it was originally fine.

如果你付出了很高價格，你就需要在某些地方獲得價值。危險在于，它們為了獲取回報，開始把每一家公司都當作不良資產看待，即便這些公司當初很不錯。

They may be pushed into acting more like 3G, which one investor calls a “brutal” cost-cutter at companies including Kraft Heinz, where it eliminated 13,000 jobs.

它們可能被迫更像3G資本那樣行事——一個投資者把3G資本稱為“殘酷”的成本削減者，包括對卡夫亨氏(Kraft Heinz)等公司。3G資本在卡夫亨氏砍掉了1.3萬個工作崗位。

The private equity industry should enjoy the party while it lasts. The fun could soon be over.

私人股本行業應在盛宴繼續的時候享受盛宴。歡樂可能很快就結束了。

There are few surer financial warnings than Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of the private equity group Blackstone, throwing a big party. His 60th birthday celebration a decade ago marked the pre-crisis peak for the industry, so the 70th he held last month in Palm Beach, Florida, featuring fireworks, camels, and a cake in the shape of a Chinese temple, is worrying.

再沒有比私人股本集團黑石(Blackstone)聯合創始人蘇世民(Stephen Schwarzman)舉辦的大派對更明確的金融警告了。10年前，他的60歲生日慶祝會標志著危機之前私人股本行業的頂峰，所以上個月他在弗羅里達州棕櫚海灘(Palm Beach)舉辦的70歲生日慶祝會——有煙火、駱駝、中國寺廟形狀的蛋糕——也就令人擔憂了。

Private equity entered a slump after his 2007 party, with the huge debt-financed deals struck at the peak looking stupid with hindsight. Ten years later, it is doing extremely well for itself.

2007年慶祝會之后，私人股本行業進入了一段低迷期，回想起來，之前巔峰時期靠著巨額債務融資達成的交易看起來很愚蠢。10年后，這個行業本身過得很不錯。

As hedge funds stumble and public stock markets are increasingly dominated by passive index funds, veterans such as Mr Schwarzman and Leon Black of Apollo are masters of thei universe.

如今對沖基金步履蹣跚，公共股票市場日益由被動指數基金主導，目前蘇世民和Apollo的里昂?布萊克(Leon Black)等老手儼然成了“宇宙主宰”。

It is a safe bet that this will not last, since it never has before. The global industry gathers every year at a conference called SuperReturn, held in Berlin this week.

我們可以放心地押注這一局面將不會持續下去，因為以前也從來沒有過。全球私人股本行業的人士每年都會聚集在一起，舉行“超級回報”(Super Return)大會。上周，今年的會議在柏林舉行。

The name is not always merited but this year’s resembles a crowded party that could erupt at any moment. Cocky financiers in expensive suits, intoxicated by cheap credit and high dividends? Run for the exits.

超級回報并非總是理所當然的，但今年的聚會就像是一個擁擠的派對，可能隨時擠爆。身著華服、趾高氣昂的金融家們，在廉價信貸和高股息中陶醉？跑向出口吧。

Even this was bearable until Mr Black took to the SuperReturn stage on Monday to declare that, although a correction was probably imminent, it could be postponed by Donald Trump’s pledge of a “revved up” US economy.

甚至這也是可以忍受的，直到布萊克登上超級回報大會的舞臺宣布，盡管一場調整很可能迫在眉睫，但唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有關“振興”美國經濟的承諾，可能會延緩這場調整。

That could unleash a further three years of “turbocharged” growth for leveraged buyouts backed by the $820bn of capital yet to be invested. Then I really got nervous.

這可能為杠桿收購帶來又三年的“渦輪增壓”增長——在尚待投入的8200億美元支持下。那么，我真的緊張了。

Private equity’s problem is not that it is suffering but the opposite: it has recovered so fully that it is flush with money. As it sells the businesses it bought a few years ago, many at a high profit, and returns cash to the pension funds and institutions that invest through it, more is arriving. This is a very good period to be selling assets but a hard one to find a bargain.

私人股本行業的問題，不是它處于煎熬之中，而是相反：它已經徹底復蘇了，資金非常充沛。由于賣掉了幾年前收購的企業（許多情況下是以高利潤賣出），并把資金返還給通過它們進行投資的養老基金和機構，更多資金正在到來。現在是出售資產的好時期，卻是物色便宜資產的困難時期。

The industry should still have advantages even in these heady times. Compared with hedge funds, which also charge stiff fees to invest other people’s money, it has performed well.

即使在這些頭腦過熱的時代，私人股本行業也應當仍有優勢。與同樣收取高昂費用幫人投資的對沖基金相比，私人股本公司的表現很不錯。

Warren Buffett wrote harshly of hedge fund managers in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors, but has partnered with 3G Capital, the Brazilian-led private equity firm.

在每年一度寫給伯克希爾哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)投資者的信中，沃倫?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)嚴厲地批評了對沖基金經理，但與巴西私人股本公司3G資本(3G Capital)站到了同一陣營。

The classic private equity deal is to borrow money to buy a medium-sized company that is in decent shape but has potential to grow or become more efficient. A fund often puts in new managers, allocating them a hefty incentive to improve the business — private equity chief executives get an average 8 per cent stake, according to one study. It then sells at a higher price five years later.

經典的私人股本交易，是借錢購買一個中等規模、經營狀況不錯、有擴大規模或提高效率的潛力的企業。私人股本基金通常安排新的高管進入企業，并為他們提供改善業績的重大激勵——一項研究顯示，私人股本基金的首席執行官平均取得被投資企業8%的股權。5年后，基金以更高價格把企業賣掉。

Having the luxury of privacy and time — not having to worry about quarterly results or investors demanding their money back — helps investments thrive.

在隱私和時間方面擁有難得的優勢——不必擔心季度業績或投資者要求返還資金——有助于投資業績飄紅。

The industry consistently outperformed the stock market up to 2006, one study found, and its long-term performance has recovered from a post-2008 dip.

一項研究發現，私人股本行業在2006年以前一直跑贏股票市場，其長期業績也已從2008年之后的谷底恢復。

But no matter how much leverage and ambition it injects into a company, a private equity fund cannot easily compensate for overpaying.

但是，無論私人股本基金向被投資企業注入多大杠桿和野心，收購價過高會讓他們無法輕易獲得補償。

This is the pressing problem: one investor estimates that his fund must pay 15 or 20 per cent more to buy a company with stable earnings than it did two years ago.

這是當前的迫切問題：據一位投資者估算，他的基金必須支付高出兩年前15%或20%的價格，才能買到一家盈利穩定的公司。

Funds prefer to find companies and take time — sometimes years — to size them up and get to know their founders or executives. The new reality is often that, as one partner describes it: “You get a book sent by Goldman Sachs, one dinner with a camera-ready executive team, and then an auction.”

私人股本基金更喜歡物色企業，然后花費時間（有時是幾年）對之作出評估和了解其創始人或高管。而如今，一名基金合伙人描述道，新的現實經常是，“你得到高盛(Goldman Sachs)寄來的一本書，跟隨時準備拍照的管理團隊吃一頓晚餐，然后就是一場拍賣。”

They are not only competing against each other. The most enthusiastic bidders are often companies in the same industry that can obtain cost savings by integrating a smaller rival. Pension funds are also getting in on the act by co-investing with private equity funds, and sometimes investing directly.

私人股本基金不僅僅是彼此競爭。最熱心的競購者通常是同一行業的公司，通過兼并一家更小的對手可以節省成本。養老基金也參與進來，與私人股本基金共同投資，有時則是直接投資。

The obvious response to an overheated market is to slow down, and even to take a break from investing until prices fall. In theory, this should be an advantage of private equity funds — they do not have to place funds immediately, and will not benefit their investors by rushing.

在過熱的市場，投資明顯應該減速，甚至暫停，直到價格跌下來。在理論上，這應該是私人股本基金的優勢——它們不必立即把錢投出去，倉促投資的話，將不會讓自己的投資人受益。

Most are pressing ahead anyway. They believe they have a unique formula that will keep their investments safe while others overpay. They do not say, although it is true, that they only get rewarded for action. They charge a 1.5 per cent management fee on their investments.

但大多數私人股本基金仍在冒進。它們認為自己掌握著獨特的公式，將保證在其他人出價過高時，自己的投資一直是安全的。它們沒說出來的是——盡管是事實——它們唯有行動起來，才能獲得回報。它們對自己的投資項目收取1.5%的管理費。

If you pay a lot, you need to get value somehow. The danger is that they start treating every company like a distressed asset to obtain a return, even if it was originally fine.

如果你付出了很高價格，你就需要在某些地方獲得價值。危險在于，它們為了獲取回報，開始把每一家公司都當作不良資產看待，即便這些公司當初很不錯。

They may be pushed into acting more like 3G, which one investor calls a “brutal” cost-cutter at companies including Kraft Heinz, where it eliminated 13,000 jobs.

它們可能被迫更像3G資本那樣行事——一個投資者把3G資本稱為“殘酷”的成本削減者，包括對卡夫亨氏(Kraft Heinz)等公司。3G資本在卡夫亨氏砍掉了1.3萬個工作崗位。

The private equity industry should enjoy the party while it lasts. The fun could soon be over.

私人股本行業應在盛宴繼續的時候享受盛宴。歡樂可能很快就結束了。