Global house prices

　　全球房價

　　HOUSING markets are prone to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting thenundershooting sustainable levels. To work out whether they are over- or undervalued, TheEconomist uses two gauges. One assesses affordability by comparing prices with disposableincome. The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents.If these ratios are higher than their historical averages property isovervalued; if they are lower it is undervalued. On this basis, Canadas house prices arebubbly whereas Japans are undeservedly flat .

　　房地產市場容易在可持續水平上下波動從而形成漲跌周期。為了衡量房價被高估還是低估，經濟學人采用了兩種測量方法。第一種是比較可支配收入與房價水平，第二種是考慮租金與房價的關系。如果這些比率高于自70年代中期以來的歷史平均值，那么房地產市場就被高估了。如果低于歷史水平，那么房地產市場被低估了。基于此，加拿大的房價有泡沫，而日本的房價則出奇的穩定。

　　Americas formerly stricken market has rebounded: house prices have risen by 12.1% overthe past year. But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervaluedagainst income. A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reservewill shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom.

　　美國曾經低迷的市場有所起色：過去一年房價上漲了12.1%。但是恢復似乎有點過于平靜，因為與收入掛鉤的話，房價明顯過低。自從五月以來的抵押貸款利率激增，這標志著美聯儲短期內將會放緩房地產購買節奏，這可能放緩經濟繁榮的步伐。

　　Britains recovery is built on shakier foundations. House-price growth has picked up in recentmonths to 3.9% and is likely to accelerate further, even though valuations are stilloverstretched. The market is being buoyed through a subsidy scheme that lowers fundingcosts for mortgage lenders and through special help for low-deposit borrowers.

　　英國的復蘇建立在極不穩定的基礎上。近幾個月房價已增長了3.9%，盡管估價仍就過高，但是未來還有加速增長的趨勢。房地產市場的好轉由補貼政策支撐。補貼政策降低抵押貸款者的花費，對低收入者有特殊幫助方法。

　　Despite favourable valuations, Japanese house prices continue to fall, though at a modest2.2%. The worst-performing markets are in the euro area, notably in southern Europe but also in some northern countries. The French market is also depressed. Valuations remainstretched in Spain even though house prices have fallen by 30% since early 2008. But therecent pick-up in the Irish market looks sustainable following a 49% price crash.

　　盡管估價較好，但是日本的房價持續下落，最新數據顯示下降了2.2%。表現最差的市場在歐洲，最差的在南歐。但是在北歐也有表現很差的國家。法國的房地產市場也很低迷。盡管自2008年以來西班牙的房價已經下降了30%，但是其估價仍就過高。然而最近數據顯示，愛爾蘭房地產市場在房價暴跌49%以后看起來穩定了不少。

　　Brighter signs gleam elsewhere, especially in Germany, which avoided the pre-crisis frenzy.Prices there have risen in the past year by 5.1%, which should bolster domestic demandand help support the economic recovery in the euro zone.

　　其他地方則有好消息，尤其是在德國，德國避開了危機前的房產狂熱。在過去的一年里，德國房價上漲了5.1%，擴大了國內需求并有利于歐元區的經濟復蘇。

　　Global house prices

　　全球房價

　　HOUSING markets are prone to boom-and-bust cycles, with prices overshooting thenundershooting sustainable levels. To work out whether they are over- or undervalued, TheEconomist uses two gauges. One assesses affordability by comparing prices with disposableincome. The other considers the case for investing in housing by comparing prices with rents.If these ratios are higher than their historical averages property isovervalued; if they are lower it is undervalued. On this basis, Canadas house prices arebubbly whereas Japans are undeservedly flat .

　　房地產市場容易在可持續水平上下波動從而形成漲跌周期。為了衡量房價被高估還是低估，經濟學人采用了兩種測量方法。第一種是比較可支配收入與房價水平，第二種是考慮租金與房價的關系。如果這些比率高于自70年代中期以來的歷史平均值，那么房地產市場就被高估了。如果低于歷史水平，那么房地產市場被低估了。基于此，加拿大的房價有泡沫，而日本的房價則出奇的穩定。

　　Americas formerly stricken market has rebounded: house prices have risen by 12.1% overthe past year. But the recovery still appears to be sound, since prices remain undervaluedagainst income. A sharp rise in mortgage rates since May, on signs that the Federal Reservewill shortly slow the pace of asset purchases, may in any case temper the boom.

　　美國曾經低迷的市場有所起色：過去一年房價上漲了12.1%。但是恢復似乎有點過于平靜，因為與收入掛鉤的話，房價明顯過低。自從五月以來的抵押貸款利率激增，這標志著美聯儲短期內將會放緩房地產購買節奏，這可能放緩經濟繁榮的步伐。

　　Britains recovery is built on shakier foundations. House-price growth has picked up in recentmonths to 3.9% and is likely to accelerate further, even though valuations are stilloverstretched. The market is being buoyed through a subsidy scheme that lowers fundingcosts for mortgage lenders and through special help for low-deposit borrowers.

　　英國的復蘇建立在極不穩定的基礎上。近幾個月房價已增長了3.9%，盡管估價仍就過高，但是未來還有加速增長的趨勢。房地產市場的好轉由補貼政策支撐。補貼政策降低抵押貸款者的花費，對低收入者有特殊幫助方法。

　　Despite favourable valuations, Japanese house prices continue to fall, though at a modest2.2%. The worst-performing markets are in the euro area, notably in southern Europe but also in some northern countries. The French market is also depressed. Valuations remainstretched in Spain even though house prices have fallen by 30% since early 2008. But therecent pick-up in the Irish market looks sustainable following a 49% price crash.

　　盡管估價較好，但是日本的房價持續下落，最新數據顯示下降了2.2%。表現最差的市場在歐洲，最差的在南歐。但是在北歐也有表現很差的國家。法國的房地產市場也很低迷。盡管自2008年以來西班牙的房價已經下降了30%，但是其估價仍就過高。然而最近數據顯示，愛爾蘭房地產市場在房價暴跌49%以后看起來穩定了不少。

　　Brighter signs gleam elsewhere, especially in Germany, which avoided the pre-crisis frenzy.Prices there have risen in the past year by 5.1%, which should bolster domestic demandand help support the economic recovery in the euro zone.

　　其他地方則有好消息，尤其是在德國，德國避開了危機前的房產狂熱。在過去的一年里，德國房價上漲了5.1%，擴大了國內需求并有利于歐元區的經濟復蘇。