全球老齡化
2023復習正是強化復習階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經濟學人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Global ageing 全球老齡化 A billion shades of grey 十億銀發族 An ageing economy will be a slower and moreunequal oneunless policy starts changing now 一個老齡化的經濟體會發展地越來越緩慢，且社會不平等加劇除非現在就開始政策改革 WARREN BUFFETT, who on May 3rd hosts the folksy extravaganza that is BerkshireHathaway s annual shareholders meeting, is an icon of American capitalism. At 83, he alsoepitomises a striking demographic trend: for highly skilled people to go on working wellinto what was once thought to be old age. Across the rich world, well-educated peopleincreasingly work longer than the less-skilled. Some 65% of American men aged 62-74 with aprofessional degree are in the workforce, compared with 32% of men with only ahigh-school certificate. In the European Union the pattern is similar. 沃倫巴菲特，這個美國資本主義的象征式人物，將于5月3號主持伯克希爾哈撒韋公司一年一度的股東大會。83歲高齡的他也正代表了當前人口發展趨勢的一個令人震驚的縮影：高技術人才在步入老年之后仍然繼續工作。在富裕的國家，受過良好教育的人比低端技術工人工作時間更長。在美國，擁有專業學位且年齡在62到74歲之間的人中有大約65%仍然在崗，相較之下，擁有高中文憑的人只有32%還在工作。在歐洲情況也類似。 This gap is part of a deepening divide between the well-educated well-off and the unskilledpoor that is slicing through all age groups. Rapid innovation has raised the incomes of thehighly skilled while squeezing those of the unskilled. Those at the top are working longerhours each year than those at the bottom. And the well-qualified are extending theirworking lives, compared with those of less-educated people . The consequences,for individuals and society, are profound. 這種差異體現了一種受過高等教育的富裕階層和缺乏技能的窮人階層之間日益加深的社會分化，而且這樣的分化遍布各個年齡層。快速的創新增加了高技術人才的收入，卻壓縮了低技術工人的薪資。處于高層職位的人的工作時間和底層工人相比逐年遞增，有資質的人的工作年限也比沒有的人要多。這樣的結果不論對于個人和社會來說，都有著深遠的影響。 Older, wiser and a lot of them 數量眾多的高技術人才變老了 The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and they will livelonger than ever before. Over the next 20 years the global population of those aged 65 ormore will almost double, from 600m to 1.1 billion. The experience of the 20th century, whengreater longevity translated into more years in retirement rather than more years at work,has persuaded many observers that this shift will lead to slower economic growth andsecular stagnation, while the swelling ranks of pensioners will bust government budgets. 世界的老齡人口正在以驚人的速度增長，并且他們越活越長。在未來的20年里，全球65歲以上的老年人數量將會翻番，從6000萬到11億。根據20世紀的經驗來看，當長壽意味著更長的退休時間和更短的工作時間時，很多人都會感覺到明顯的經濟增速減緩和長期經濟停滯，同時越來越多的養老金申領人口會導致政府的預算破產。 But the notion of a sharp division between the working young and the idle old misses a newtrend, the growing gap between the skilled and the unskilled. Employment rates are fallingamong younger unskilled people, whereas older skilled folk are working longer. The divideis most extreme in America, where well-educated baby-boomers are putting off retirementwhile many less-skilled younger people have dropped out of the workforce. 當我們只關注于工作年輕人與閑散老年人的嚴重分化現象時，往往忽略了一個新的趨勢，即不同人勞動技能之間日益加劇的差異。缺乏技能的年輕人的就業率在下降，而經驗豐富的高技術人才卻工作得越來越久。在美國，這樣的分歧最為嚴重，嬰兒潮時期出生的、受過良好教育的人們延遲退休，從而將技能不足的年輕人排擠出勞動力市場。 Policy is partly responsible. Many European governments have abandoned policies that usedto encourage people to retire early. Rising life expectancy, combined with the replacementof generous defined-benefit pension plans with stingier defined-contribution ones,means that even the better-off must work longer to have a comfortable retirement. But thechanging nature of work also plays a big role. Pay has risen sharply for the highly educated,and those people continue to reap rich rewards into old age because these days the educatedelderly are more productive than their predecessors. Technological change may wellreinforce that shift: the skills that complement computers, from management expertiseto creativity, do not necessarily decline with age. 政策也要為此承擔一部分責任。很多歐洲政府已經撤銷了鼓勵人們提早退休的政策。增長的壽命，再加上養老金計劃從回報豐厚的固定收益型轉為日趨緊縮的固定繳費型，這都意味著經濟條件較好的人都不得不工作更長時間以保障一個安逸的晚年。另外，工作性質的改變也是原因之一。受過高等教育的人的工資顯著增加，因為這些人的生產能力比前人更高，所以他們能將所得的高額酬勞儲蓄起來作為晚年的保障?？萍嫉霓D型也會增強這樣的改變：像管理技巧和創造力這種不能夠被計算機所取代的能力，不一定會因年齡老化而失去其價值。 This trend will benefit not just fortunate oldies but also, in some ways, society as a whole.Growth will slow less dramatically than expected; government budgets will be in bettershape, as high earners pay taxes for longer. Rich countries with lots of well-educated olderpeople will find the burden of ageing easier to bear than places like China, where half of all50-to-64-year-olds did not complete primary-school education. 這種趨勢不僅對那些幸運的老人們有好處，也令社會從中得益。經濟增長不會像預期中那樣急劇減緩：政府預算看起來會好得多，因為高收入者會納稅地更久。擁有大量受過良好教育的老年人的發達國家，其人口老齡化的負擔會比其他地區輕得多，比如50至64歲人口中一半都沒有完成小學教育的中國。 At the other end of the social scale, however, things look grim. Manual work gets harder aspeople get older, and public pensions look more attractive to those on low wages and theunemployed. In the lexicon of popular hate-figures, work-shirking welfare queens breedingat the taxpayer s expense may be replaced by deadbeat grandads collecting taxpayerhandouts while their hard-working contemporaries strive on. 然而，從社會的另一個層面來講情形并非如此樂觀。隨著年齡增長，體力勞動將會顯得力不從心，因此對于低收入者和失業者來說公共養老金會更有吸引力。最招人討厭的公眾形象可能會從好吃懶做、靠納稅人供養的福利皇后變成欠債不還、當同齡人還在努力工作時卻只會伸手向納稅人討救濟品的養老金爺爺。 Nor are all the effects on the economy beneficial. Wealthy old people will accumulate moresavings, which will weaken demand. Inequality will increase and a growing share of wealthwill eventually be transferred to the next generation via inheritance, entrenching thedivision between winners and losers still further. 對經濟的影響并不全是有利的。富裕的老年人會積累更多的儲蓄，因此會降低需求。社會不平等會增加，其中很大一部分財富會以遺產的形式轉移給下一代，使得成功者與失敗者之間的貧富差距鴻溝日益加大。 One likely response is to impose higher inheritance taxes. So long as they replaced less-fairtaxes, that might make sense. They would probably encourage old people to spend theircash rather than salt it away. But governments should focus not on redistributing income buton generating more of it by reforming retirement and education. 一個可行的措施是施行高額遺產稅。只要能夠代替其他更缺乏公平的稅收，遺產稅還是較為合理的。這能使老年人花掉他們的積蓄而不是存起來。但政府也應該通過改革退休政策和教育體系來創造更多收入，而不能僅僅停留在重新分配收入的層面。 Age should no longer determine the appropriate end of a working life. Mandatoryretirement ages and pension rules that discourage people from working longer should go.Welfare should reflect the greater opportunities open to the higher-skilled. Pensions shouldbecome more progressive. At the same time, this trend underlines the importance ofincreasing public investment in education at all stages of life, so that more people acquirethe skills they need to thrive in the modern labour market. Today, many governments areunderstandably loth to spend money retraining older folk who are likely to retire soon. But ifpeople can work for longer, that investment makes much more sense. Deadbeat 60-year-oldsare unlikely to become computer scientists, but they could learn useful vocational skills,such as caring for the growing number of very old people. 工作年限不應該被年齡所限制。強制性退休年齡和養老金制度會讓人們不想工作那么久，所以是不合理的，應該被淘汰。社會福利應該能夠反映出針對高技術人才的廣闊機遇。養老金應該更加循序漸進。與此同時，這個趨勢也顯示出加強對各個年齡段的公共教育投資的重要性，令更多的人獲得能夠在現代勞動力市場中得以立足的技能。如今，很多政府都懶得為那些馬上就要退休的老年人花錢進行重新培訓，這是可以理解的。但是，如果人們能夠工作的更久，這種投資是有意義的。年屆60且欠債不還的人不太可能成為計算機科學家。但他們能夠學習一些職業技能，例如照顧數量越來越多的老年人。
2023復習正是強化復習階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經濟學人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Global ageing 全球老齡化 A billion shades of grey 十億銀發族 An ageing economy will be a slower and moreunequal oneunless policy starts changing now 一個老齡化的經濟體會發展地越來越緩慢，且社會不平等加劇除非現在就開始政策改革 WARREN BUFFETT, who on May 3rd hosts the folksy extravaganza that is BerkshireHathaway s annual shareholders meeting, is an icon of American capitalism. At 83, he alsoepitomises a striking demographic trend: for highly skilled people to go on working wellinto what was once thought to be old age. Across the rich world, well-educated peopleincreasingly work longer than the less-skilled. Some 65% of American men aged 62-74 with aprofessional degree are in the workforce, compared with 32% of men with only ahigh-school certificate. In the European Union the pattern is similar. 沃倫巴菲特，這個美國資本主義的象征式人物，將于5月3號主持伯克希爾哈撒韋公司一年一度的股東大會。83歲高齡的他也正代表了當前人口發展趨勢的一個令人震驚的縮影：高技術人才在步入老年之后仍然繼續工作。在富裕的國家，受過良好教育的人比低端技術工人工作時間更長。在美國，擁有專業學位且年齡在62到74歲之間的人中有大約65%仍然在崗，相較之下，擁有高中文憑的人只有32%還在工作。在歐洲情況也類似。 This gap is part of a deepening divide between the well-educated well-off and the unskilledpoor that is slicing through all age groups. Rapid innovation has raised the incomes of thehighly skilled while squeezing those of the unskilled. Those at the top are working longerhours each year than those at the bottom. And the well-qualified are extending theirworking lives, compared with those of less-educated people . The consequences,for individuals and society, are profound. 這種差異體現了一種受過高等教育的富裕階層和缺乏技能的窮人階層之間日益加深的社會分化，而且這樣的分化遍布各個年齡層?？焖俚膭撔略黾恿烁呒夹g人才的收入，卻壓縮了低技術工人的薪資。處于高層職位的人的工作時間和底層工人相比逐年遞增，有資質的人的工作年限也比沒有的人要多。這樣的結果不論對于個人和社會來說，都有著深遠的影響。 Older, wiser and a lot of them 數量眾多的高技術人才變老了 The world is on the cusp of a staggering rise in the number of old people, and they will livelonger than ever before. Over the next 20 years the global population of those aged 65 ormore will almost double, from 600m to 1.1 billion. The experience of the 20th century, whengreater longevity translated into more years in retirement rather than more years at work,has persuaded many observers that this shift will lead to slower economic growth andsecular stagnation, while the swelling ranks of pensioners will bust government budgets. 世界的老齡人口正在以驚人的速度增長，并且他們越活越長。在未來的20年里，全球65歲以上的老年人數量將會翻番，從6000萬到11億。根據20世紀的經驗來看，當長壽意味著更長的退休時間和更短的工作時間時，很多人都會感覺到明顯的經濟增速減緩和長期經濟停滯，同時越來越多的養老金申領人口會導致政府的預算破產。 But the notion of a sharp division between the working young and the idle old misses a newtrend, the growing gap between the skilled and the unskilled. Employment rates are fallingamong younger unskilled people, whereas older skilled folk are working longer. The divideis most extreme in America, where well-educated baby-boomers are putting off retirementwhile many less-skilled younger people have dropped out of the workforce. 當我們只關注于工作年輕人與閑散老年人的嚴重分化現象時，往往忽略了一個新的趨勢，即不同人勞動技能之間日益加劇的差異。缺乏技能的年輕人的就業率在下降，而經驗豐富的高技術人才卻工作得越來越久。在美國，這樣的分歧最為嚴重，嬰兒潮時期出生的、受過良好教育的人們延遲退休，從而將技能不足的年輕人排擠出勞動力市場。 Policy is partly responsible. Many European governments have abandoned policies that usedto encourage people to retire early. Rising life expectancy, combined with the replacementof generous defined-benefit pension plans with stingier defined-contribution ones,means that even the better-off must work longer to have a comfortable retirement. But thechanging nature of work also plays a big role. Pay has risen sharply for the highly educated,and those people continue to reap rich rewards into old age because these days the educatedelderly are more productive than their predecessors. Technological change may wellreinforce that shift: the skills that complement computers, from management expertiseto creativity, do not necessarily decline with age. 政策也要為此承擔一部分責任。很多歐洲政府已經撤銷了鼓勵人們提早退休的政策。增長的壽命，再加上養老金計劃從回報豐厚的固定收益型轉為日趨緊縮的固定繳費型，這都意味著經濟條件較好的人都不得不工作更長時間以保障一個安逸的晚年。另外，工作性質的改變也是原因之一。受過高等教育的人的工資顯著增加，因為這些人的生產能力比前人更高，所以他們能將所得的高額酬勞儲蓄起來作為晚年的保障?？萍嫉霓D型也會增強這樣的改變：像管理技巧和創造力這種不能夠被計算機所取代的能力，不一定會因年齡老化而失去其價值。 This trend will benefit not just fortunate oldies but also, in some ways, society as a whole.Growth will slow less dramatically than expected; government budgets will be in bettershape, as high earners pay taxes for longer. Rich countries with lots of well-educated olderpeople will find the burden of ageing easier to bear than places like China, where half of all50-to-64-year-olds did not complete primary-school education. 這種趨勢不僅對那些幸運的老人們有好處，也令社會從中得益。經濟增長不會像預期中那樣急劇減緩：政府預算看起來會好得多，因為高收入者會納稅地更久。擁有大量受過良好教育的老年人的發達國家，其人口老齡化的負擔會比其他地區輕得多，比如50至64歲人口中一半都沒有完成小學教育的中國。 At the other end of the social scale, however, things look grim. Manual work gets harder aspeople get older, and public pensions look more attractive to those on low wages and theunemployed. In the lexicon of popular hate-figures, work-shirking welfare queens breedingat the taxpayer s expense may be replaced by deadbeat grandads collecting taxpayerhandouts while their hard-working contemporaries strive on. 然而，從社會的另一個層面來講情形并非如此樂觀。隨著年齡增長，體力勞動將會顯得力不從心，因此對于低收入者和失業者來說公共養老金會更有吸引力。最招人討厭的公眾形象可能會從好吃懶做、靠納稅人供養的福利皇后變成欠債不還、當同齡人還在努力工作時卻只會伸手向納稅人討救濟品的養老金爺爺。 Nor are all the effects on the economy beneficial. Wealthy old people will accumulate moresavings, which will weaken demand. Inequality will increase and a growing share of wealthwill eventually be transferred to the next generation via inheritance, entrenching thedivision between winners and losers still further. 對經濟的影響并不全是有利的。富裕的老年人會積累更多的儲蓄，因此會降低需求。社會不平等會增加，其中很大一部分財富會以遺產的形式轉移給下一代，使得成功者與失敗者之間的貧富差距鴻溝日益加大。 One likely response is to impose higher inheritance taxes. So long as they replaced less-fairtaxes, that might make sense. They would probably encourage old people to spend theircash rather than salt it away. But governments should focus not on redistributing income buton generating more of it by reforming retirement and education. 一個可行的措施是施行高額遺產稅。只要能夠代替其他更缺乏公平的稅收，遺產稅還是較為合理的。這能使老年人花掉他們的積蓄而不是存起來。但政府也應該通過改革退休政策和教育體系來創造更多收入，而不能僅僅停留在重新分配收入的層面。 Age should no longer determine the appropriate end of a working life. Mandatoryretirement ages and pension rules that discourage people from working longer should go.Welfare should reflect the greater opportunities open to the higher-skilled. Pensions shouldbecome more progressive. At the same time, this trend underlines the importance ofincreasing public investment in education at all stages of life, so that more people acquirethe skills they need to thrive in the modern labour market. Today, many governments areunderstandably loth to spend money retraining older folk who are likely to retire soon. But ifpeople can work for longer, that investment makes much more sense. Deadbeat 60-year-oldsare unlikely to become computer scientists, but they could learn useful vocational skills,such as caring for the growing number of very old people. 工作年限不應該被年齡所限制。強制性退休年齡和養老金制度會讓人們不想工作那么久，所以是不合理的，應該被淘汰。社會福利應該能夠反映出針對高技術人才的廣闊機遇。養老金應該更加循序漸進。與此同時，這個趨勢也顯示出加強對各個年齡段的公共教育投資的重要性，令更多的人獲得能夠在現代勞動力市場中得以立足的技能。如今，很多政府都懶得為那些馬上就要退休的老年人花錢進行重新培訓，這是可以理解的。但是，如果人們能夠工作的更久，這種投資是有意義的。年屆60且欠債不還的人不太可能成為計算機科學家。但他們能夠學習一些職業技能，例如照顧數量越來越多的老年人。
