World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting peak oil. Peak oil is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2023 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of Peak Oil. The term Peak Oil indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.

　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.

　　詞匯：

　　crude oil原油

　　curve n.曲線

　　1.ACSEnergyFuels：ACS是American Chemical Society的縮寫。該學會成立于1876年，現已成為世界最大的科技協會。多年來，ACS一直致力于為全球化學研究機構、企業及個人提供高品質的文獻資訊及服務。ACS出版的期刊有34種，這些期刊在化學領域中是被引用次數最多的化學期刊，EnergyFuels即是其中一本。

　　3.a bell shaped curve：鐘形曲線

　　5.account for：說明，解釋

　　7.oil reserves：石油儲量。通常使用復數形式reserves。

　　A.It predicts global oil production will peak in 2023.

　　C.It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model.

　　5.Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?

　　B.Kuwaiti scientists.

　　D.Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.

　　World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting peak oil. Peak oil is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2023 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of Peak Oil. The term Peak Oil indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.

　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.

　　詞匯：

　　crude oil原油

　　curve n.曲線

　　1.ACSEnergyFuels：ACS是American Chemical Society的縮寫。該學會成立于1876年，現已成為世界最大的科技協會。多年來，ACS一直致力于為全球化學研究機構、企業及個人提供高品質的文獻資訊及服務。ACS出版的期刊有34種，這些期刊在化學領域中是被引用次數最多的化學期刊，EnergyFuels即是其中一本。

　　3.a bell shaped curve：鐘形曲線

　　5.account for：說明，解釋

　　7.oil reserves：石油儲量。通常使用復數形式reserves。

　　A.It predicts global oil production will peak in 2023.

　　C.It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model.

　　5.Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?

　　B.Kuwaiti scientists.

　　D.Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.