Waiting for the earth to open

　　待重頭收拾舊山河

　　HOURS after an earthquake struck Americas east coast on August 23rd, office workers werestill milling around the streets of Washington, DC and New York , nervously waiting foraftershocks. A similar watch over the economy is now under way. The earthquake that rippedthrough the American economy from 2007 to 2009 is still generating tremors. The latest maybe the strongest yet. Since late July stock markets in America and round the world havenosedived, fearful that America is falling back into recession and that Europes debt crisis willdrag down its banks.

　　在美國東海岸8 月23日的地震之后數個小時，上班族們仍在華盛頓和紐約的街道上游蕩著，惴惴不安地等待著下次余震。美國經濟也正出現類似的情況。跨經2007年到 2009年的美國經濟大地震破壞其經濟體系，并不斷產生余震。或許，最后的才是最強的。自7月下旬美國股市和全球股市都遭受重創，人們擔心美國經濟衰退，同時也害怕歐洲的債務危機拖垮銀行。

　　Americas economy is certainly weak. It grew at an annualised rate of just 0.4% in the firstquarter and 1.3% in the second. Future revisions may push both numbers into negativeterritory: the economy would have already double-dipped.

　　美國經濟確實已經很衰弱了。第一季度的經濟增長只有0.4%，而第二季度則為1.3%。以后的計算修正或許會讓這兩個數字變為負值：美國經濟已經出現二次探底。

　　Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyanuprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted supply chains. Asboth shocks receded, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled bythe Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July ,though it may since have flagged again.

　　經濟的虛弱之處大部分應歸咎于原油價格的急劇增長，這是因為在利比亞起義和日本地震海嘯之后，原油的供應鏈遭到了破壞。在這兩大沖擊都有所減弱后，經濟活動得到了喘息之機。在芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行編纂的一份經濟報告指數顯示，美國經濟在7月份產生正增長，雖然它后來可能會再次陷入低迷。

　　Economists have long speculated that weak growthof this sort is like an aircrafts stall speed, belowwhich it risks falling out of the sky. A paper byJeremy Nalewaik of the Federal Reserve has foundthat since 1978, whenever the economy has grownless than 1% in a given quarter, a recession hassoon followed half to two-thirds of the time. .

　　經濟學家們推測，這種類型的弱勢增長就好像飛機的失速速度，一旦低于這個臨界點，那么就有可能從空中墜落。美聯儲的Jeremy Nalewaik撰文寫道，自1978年以來，無論何時只要某季度的經濟增長率低于1%，那么很快地，在其后的一半或者三分之二的時間里就會處于衰退之中。

　　That is not as helpful as it sounds. Aircraft flying slowly do sometimes crash but, more often,they land. Slow-growing economies that fall into recession are typically pushed, as some shockforces a pre-existing imbalance to tip them over.

　　這并非像聽起來那樣有效。飛機飛的過慢時或許會墜毀，但更多的時候它們可以選擇著陸。而陷入不景氣的緩慢經濟卻往往處于困境之中，因為某些打擊使得已失衡的部分傾覆整個經濟體系。

　　Such imbalances are hard to find now in America. Housing, cars and business inventories, thethree most volatile components of GDP, usually accelerate the contraction that bringsrecession. None looks especially stretched. Quite the opposite: house-construction has neverclimbed off the bottom, and now makes up just 2.4% of GDP, less than half its historicalaverage . Mike Gorman, a builder in northern Virginia, says that his business hascollapsed over the past three years. We went from 40 employees to one part-timer. Werebuilding just a house or two here or there. Its been really, really quiet. Car production hasrebounded, but to a level well below its typical share of GDP. The ratio of business inventoriesto sales, which soared during the recession, is now back to normal.

　　這樣的不安定因素在美國已經很難找到。住房，汽車和商業庫存，這國內生產總值的三大最不穩定成分，通常會加速導致衰退的通貨緊縮。沒有哪家能脫身事外。恰恰相反：住房建設從未脫離底部進入上升，并且現在僅占GDP的2.4%，低于歷史平均水平的一半。 Mike Gorman，北弗吉尼亞州的一個建造商，說道他的生意在過去的三年里遭受重挫。我們原來有40名雇員，而現在只有一個兼職人員。我們只是零散地蓋了一兩棟房子。這真的，真的太蕭條了。汽車產量業已回升，但只是處于GDP的通常份額標準之下。商業存貨銷售比在經濟衰退期間飆升，而現在也已經回跌到正常水平。

　　The shock that pushes the economy over the edge often originates in financial markets.Although stock prices have plummeted, credit is relatively easy to come by. Spreads oncorporate bonds are normal, short-term interest rates are deeply negative when adjusted forinflation, and the Feds latest survey has found banks more anxious to lend, the exactopposite of lending conditions in the run-up to recession, notes Kevin Logan of HSBC.

　　將經濟推向懸崖邊緣的沖擊通常來源于金融市場。雖然股市一路暴跌，貸款卻唾手可得。公司債券的信貸利差維持正常，而短期利率再算上通脹率影響后變為負值，而美聯儲最近調查表明銀行更加急于放貸，和衰退前夕的放貸環境恰恰相反，匯豐銀行的Kevin Logan隨手記道。

　　Although the absence of obvious imbalances or financial strains does not eliminate the risk ofrecession in America, it does militate against a long, deep downturn. Indeed, it may be hard formost people to distinguish a shallow recession from lacklustre growth.

　　盡管缺少明顯的經濟不平衡和資金緊張的跡象，這也并不能消除美國會爆發經濟衰退的風險，但是，這的確會對防止美國進入持久的大幅度的經濟下滑產生影響。事實上，對于大多數人們來說，區分平淡無奇的增長和不明顯的衰退是很困難的。

　　Waiting for the earth to open

　　待重頭收拾舊山河

　　HOURS after an earthquake struck Americas east coast on August 23rd, office workers werestill milling around the streets of Washington, DC and New York , nervously waiting foraftershocks. A similar watch over the economy is now under way. The earthquake that rippedthrough the American economy from 2007 to 2009 is still generating tremors. The latest maybe the strongest yet. Since late July stock markets in America and round the world havenosedived, fearful that America is falling back into recession and that Europes debt crisis willdrag down its banks.

　　在美國東海岸8 月23日的地震之后數個小時，上班族們仍在華盛頓和紐約的街道上游蕩著，惴惴不安地等待著下次余震。美國經濟也正出現類似的情況。跨經2007年到 2009年的美國經濟大地震破壞其經濟體系，并不斷產生余震。或許，最后的才是最強的。自7月下旬美國股市和全球股市都遭受重創，人們擔心美國經濟衰退，同時也害怕歐洲的債務危機拖垮銀行。

　　Americas economy is certainly weak. It grew at an annualised rate of just 0.4% in the firstquarter and 1.3% in the second. Future revisions may push both numbers into negativeterritory: the economy would have already double-dipped.

　　美國經濟確實已經很衰弱了。第一季度的經濟增長只有0.4%，而第二季度則為1.3%。以后的計算修正或許會讓這兩個數字變為負值：美國經濟已經出現二次探底。

　　Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyanuprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted supply chains. Asboth shocks receded, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled bythe Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July ,though it may since have flagged again.

　　經濟的虛弱之處大部分應歸咎于原油價格的急劇增長，這是因為在利比亞起義和日本地震海嘯之后，原油的供應鏈遭到了破壞。在這兩大沖擊都有所減弱后，經濟活動得到了喘息之機。在芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行編纂的一份經濟報告指數顯示，美國經濟在7月份產生正增長，雖然它后來可能會再次陷入低迷。

　　Economists have long speculated that weak growthof this sort is like an aircrafts stall speed, belowwhich it risks falling out of the sky. A paper byJeremy Nalewaik of the Federal Reserve has foundthat since 1978, whenever the economy has grownless than 1% in a given quarter, a recession hassoon followed half to two-thirds of the time. .

　　經濟學家們推測，這種類型的弱勢增長就好像飛機的失速速度，一旦低于這個臨界點，那么就有可能從空中墜落。美聯儲的Jeremy Nalewaik撰文寫道，自1978年以來，無論何時只要某季度的經濟增長率低于1%，那么很快地，在其后的一半或者三分之二的時間里就會處于衰退之中。

　　That is not as helpful as it sounds. Aircraft flying slowly do sometimes crash but, more often,they land. Slow-growing economies that fall into recession are typically pushed, as some shockforces a pre-existing imbalance to tip them over.

　　這并非像聽起來那樣有效。飛機飛的過慢時或許會墜毀，但更多的時候它們可以選擇著陸。而陷入不景氣的緩慢經濟卻往往處于困境之中，因為某些打擊使得已失衡的部分傾覆整個經濟體系。

　　Such imbalances are hard to find now in America. Housing, cars and business inventories, thethree most volatile components of GDP, usually accelerate the contraction that bringsrecession. None looks especially stretched. Quite the opposite: house-construction has neverclimbed off the bottom, and now makes up just 2.4% of GDP, less than half its historicalaverage . Mike Gorman, a builder in northern Virginia, says that his business hascollapsed over the past three years. We went from 40 employees to one part-timer. Werebuilding just a house or two here or there. Its been really, really quiet. Car production hasrebounded, but to a level well below its typical share of GDP. The ratio of business inventoriesto sales, which soared during the recession, is now back to normal.

　　這樣的不安定因素在美國已經很難找到。住房，汽車和商業庫存，這國內生產總值的三大最不穩定成分，通常會加速導致衰退的通貨緊縮。沒有哪家能脫身事外。恰恰相反：住房建設從未脫離底部進入上升，并且現在僅占GDP的2.4%，低于歷史平均水平的一半。 Mike Gorman，北弗吉尼亞州的一個建造商，說道他的生意在過去的三年里遭受重挫。我們原來有40名雇員，而現在只有一個兼職人員。我們只是零散地蓋了一兩棟房子。這真的，真的太蕭條了。汽車產量業已回升，但只是處于GDP的通常份額標準之下。商業存貨銷售比在經濟衰退期間飆升，而現在也已經回跌到正常水平。

　　The shock that pushes the economy over the edge often originates in financial markets.Although stock prices have plummeted, credit is relatively easy to come by. Spreads oncorporate bonds are normal, short-term interest rates are deeply negative when adjusted forinflation, and the Feds latest survey has found banks more anxious to lend, the exactopposite of lending conditions in the run-up to recession, notes Kevin Logan of HSBC.

　　將經濟推向懸崖邊緣的沖擊通常來源于金融市場。雖然股市一路暴跌，貸款卻唾手可得。公司債券的信貸利差維持正常，而短期利率再算上通脹率影響后變為負值，而美聯儲最近調查表明銀行更加急于放貸，和衰退前夕的放貸環境恰恰相反，匯豐銀行的Kevin Logan隨手記道。

　　Although the absence of obvious imbalances or financial strains does not eliminate the risk ofrecession in America, it does militate against a long, deep downturn. Indeed, it may be hard formost people to distinguish a shallow recession from lacklustre growth.

　　盡管缺少明顯的經濟不平衡和資金緊張的跡象，這也并不能消除美國會爆發經濟衰退的風險，但是，這的確會對防止美國進入持久的大幅度的經濟下滑產生影響。事實上，對于大多數人們來說，區分平淡無奇的增長和不明顯的衰退是很困難的。