Businesses and insurance商業與保險

　　How to becomepolitics-proof政治風險，如何能抗

　　Businesses can get cover against some, but not all,political upheavals

　　某些政治動亂引起的商業損失能夠得到補償，但非全部

　　REGIME change has an awkward way of turninguseful political contacts into liabilities. Just askAhmed Ezz, an Egyptian steel magnate and friend ofGamal Mubarak, son of the countrys oustedpresident, when you next visit his jail cell. Butbusinesses face political risk even in the absence ofthe kind of turmoil rocking the Middle East. Governments nationalise assets: in recent years,Congo has taken several mines from their private owners. They change the rulesunexpectedly, making it harder to do business, as Research in Motion, the maker of theBlackBerry, found when some governments demanded access to users messages. They canenforce the law in the most draconian fashion against firms that displease them, as RussiasYukos found.

　　政權的更迭會讓一樁有利的政府合同變成包袱。不信的話，你可以去問問艾哈邁德??伊斯。此人是埃及的鋼鐵巨頭，前總統的兒子賈邁德??穆巴拉赫的朋友。但此時，他正身陷囹圄。但是，即使在那些有別于中東的動蕩政局的地方，商業活動同樣要面臨政治風險。政府不斷的對私人資產實行公有化：近年來，剛果政府收購了好幾家私人煤礦。 RIM遭遇一些國家的政府希望獲得手機用戶的信息的情況時就意識到，政府對游戲規則出人意料的改變，使得生意越來越難做。俄羅斯的尤科斯也意識到，政府對于那些惹惱了他們的企業，采取的最嚴厲的方式，甚至是強制改變國家的法律。

　　A survey last year by the World Banks Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency foundthat political risk was the biggest deterrent for investors in developing countries over thelonger term, ranked ahead of economic instability and bad infrastructure. What can they doabout it?

　　去年，由世界銀行多變投資擔保機構的研究表明，政治風險超過了經濟不穩定以及基礎設施惡劣，成為投資者們在發展中國家進行長期投資的最大顧慮。對此，他們能夠做些什么呢?

　　Private insurers, national export-credit agencies and multilateral bodies like MIGA offerbusinesses cover against political shocks. But which firms they will insure, and on what terms,varies. National agencies, such as Americas Overseas Private Investment Corporation, tend tosell cover only to companies from their home country. Private insurers can be more risk-aversethan multilateral agencies.

　　私營保險公司，國家出口信用機構以像MIGA一樣的多邊機構都為企業提供應對政治風險的保障。但是對被擔保公司的種類以及保險條款上各有不同。國家機構，例如美國海外私人保險公司只為本國的公司提供保險。而私人保險公司相較于多邊機構來說，對風險更為厭惡。

　　Not all risks are insurable. Cover is available for the sudden imposition of currency controls,expropriations, conflicts and terrorism, and for governments failing to keep their part of aninvestment deal, such as supplying a new factory with electricity. But legitimate policy changes cannot be covered, because of the insurers slimchances of recovering anything from the government concerned.

　　并非所有的風險都能投保。保險只針對突發的匯率管制，公司被征收，地區沖突恐怖襲擊，以及政府無法保持的投資活動，例如對一家新工廠的持續供電。但是政策的變化不再保險范圍之內。因為保險公司從相關政府得到補償的機會是相當渺茫的。

　　The demand for political-risk insurance slumped during the financial crisis, as companies madefewer investments. Members of the Berne Union, the largest group of providers of such cover,wrote only $36 billion of new policies in 2009, down 38% on the previous year. But businessrebounded sharply in 2010 when foreign investment into developing countries recovered. Asregimes totter across the Middle East, those who offer cover against nasty political surpriseslook set to be even busier this year.

　　金融危機期間，由于各個公司投資的減少，政治風險保險的需求量有所下滑。全球最大的保險提供聯盟伯爾尼聯盟的成員，在2009年的新政策保險業務額只有360億美元，較2008年下降38%。但是在2010年，由于發展中國家的外資投資增加，保險額大幅反彈。隨著中東地區的政權動蕩，那些提供政治風險保險的公司將迎來忙碌的一年。

　　Businesses and insurance商業與保險

　　How to becomepolitics-proof政治風險，如何能抗

　　Businesses can get cover against some, but not all,political upheavals

　　某些政治動亂引起的商業損失能夠得到補償，但非全部

　　REGIME change has an awkward way of turninguseful political contacts into liabilities. Just askAhmed Ezz, an Egyptian steel magnate and friend ofGamal Mubarak, son of the countrys oustedpresident, when you next visit his jail cell. Butbusinesses face political risk even in the absence ofthe kind of turmoil rocking the Middle East. Governments nationalise assets: in recent years,Congo has taken several mines from their private owners. They change the rulesunexpectedly, making it harder to do business, as Research in Motion, the maker of theBlackBerry, found when some governments demanded access to users messages. They canenforce the law in the most draconian fashion against firms that displease them, as RussiasYukos found.

　　政權的更迭會讓一樁有利的政府合同變成包袱。不信的話，你可以去問問艾哈邁德??伊斯。此人是埃及的鋼鐵巨頭，前總統的兒子賈邁德??穆巴拉赫的朋友。但此時，他正身陷囹圄。但是，即使在那些有別于中東的動蕩政局的地方，商業活動同樣要面臨政治風險。政府不斷的對私人資產實行公有化：近年來，剛果政府收購了好幾家私人煤礦。 RIM遭遇一些國家的政府希望獲得手機用戶的信息的情況時就意識到，政府對游戲規則出人意料的改變，使得生意越來越難做。俄羅斯的尤科斯也意識到，政府對于那些惹惱了他們的企業，采取的最嚴厲的方式，甚至是強制改變國家的法律。

　　A survey last year by the World Banks Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency foundthat political risk was the biggest deterrent for investors in developing countries over thelonger term, ranked ahead of economic instability and bad infrastructure. What can they doabout it?

　　去年，由世界銀行多變投資擔保機構的研究表明，政治風險超過了經濟不穩定以及基礎設施惡劣，成為投資者們在發展中國家進行長期投資的最大顧慮。對此，他們能夠做些什么呢?

　　Private insurers, national export-credit agencies and multilateral bodies like MIGA offerbusinesses cover against political shocks. But which firms they will insure, and on what terms,varies. National agencies, such as Americas Overseas Private Investment Corporation, tend tosell cover only to companies from their home country. Private insurers can be more risk-aversethan multilateral agencies.

　　私營保險公司，國家出口信用機構以像MIGA一樣的多邊機構都為企業提供應對政治風險的保障。但是對被擔保公司的種類以及保險條款上各有不同。國家機構，例如美國海外私人保險公司只為本國的公司提供保險。而私人保險公司相較于多邊機構來說，對風險更為厭惡。

　　Not all risks are insurable. Cover is available for the sudden imposition of currency controls,expropriations, conflicts and terrorism, and for governments failing to keep their part of aninvestment deal, such as supplying a new factory with electricity. But legitimate policy changes cannot be covered, because of the insurers slimchances of recovering anything from the government concerned.

　　并非所有的風險都能投保。保險只針對突發的匯率管制，公司被征收，地區沖突恐怖襲擊，以及政府無法保持的投資活動，例如對一家新工廠的持續供電。但是政策的變化不再保險范圍之內。因為保險公司從相關政府得到補償的機會是相當渺茫的。

　　The demand for political-risk insurance slumped during the financial crisis, as companies madefewer investments. Members of the Berne Union, the largest group of providers of such cover,wrote only $36 billion of new policies in 2009, down 38% on the previous year. But businessrebounded sharply in 2010 when foreign investment into developing countries recovered. Asregimes totter across the Middle East, those who offer cover against nasty political surpriseslook set to be even busier this year.

　　金融危機期間，由于各個公司投資的減少，政治風險保險的需求量有所下滑。全球最大的保險提供聯盟伯爾尼聯盟的成員，在2009年的新政策保險業務額只有360億美元，較2008年下降38%。但是在2010年，由于發展中國家的外資投資增加，保險額大幅反彈。隨著中東地區的政權動蕩，那些提供政治風險保險的公司將迎來忙碌的一年。