AMERICAN manufacturers complain that Chinaundervalues its exchange rate. But which one? Thenominal exchange rate is now 6.67 Yuan to thedollar, having strengthened by almost 2% sinceSeptember 5th and by24% since 2005.

　　美國制造商抱怨中國低估其匯率。但是是哪項(xiàng)匯率?名義匯率現(xiàn)在是1美元兌6.67元，自9月5日以來上升了近2%，自2005年以來上升了24%。

　　But Chinas real exchange rate with America has strengthened by almost 50% since 2005,according to calculations by The Economist . A real exchange rate takes accountof price movements in each country. If prices rise faster in China than in America, Chinasreal exchange rate goes up, even if its nominal exchange rate stays the same. Thatsbecause higher prices at home make Chinas firms less competitive abroad, just as if theircurrency had gone up.

　　但是根據(jù)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的計(jì)算，自2005年以來，中國與美國的實(shí)際匯率上升了近50%。實(shí)際匯率把各國的價(jià)格波動(dòng)也考慮在內(nèi)。如果中國的物價(jià)上漲速度比美國快，即便其名義匯率保持不變，中國的實(shí)際匯率也會(huì)上升。這是因?yàn)閲鴥?nèi)較高的物價(jià)是中國公司在國外的競(jìng)爭力減弱，正如其貨幣升值一樣。

　　To calculate the real exchange rate, you need a gauge of prices in each country. Manyeconomists use the consumer-price index . But the CPI contains lots of goods andservices that cannot be traded across borders. Our measure of thereal exchange rate, which we will regularly update, offers a more direct measure ofcompetitiveness by looking instead at unit labour costs: the price of labour per widget.These costs go up when wages rise or productivity falls. In Americanmanufacturing, unit labour costs have risen by less than 4% since the first quarter of 2005,according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. In Chinese industry they have risen by 25% overthat period, according to our sums.

　　計(jì)算實(shí)際匯率，你需要每個(gè)國家的物價(jià)指標(biāo)。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用的是消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)。但是消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)包含了許多無法跨境交易的商品和服務(wù)。我們實(shí)際匯率的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)關(guān)注的是單位勞動(dòng)力成本，更加直接的衡量競(jìng)爭力：每件產(chǎn)品的勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格。這些價(jià)格在工資上漲或生產(chǎn)率下降時(shí)就會(huì)上漲。根據(jù)勞動(dòng)統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)，自2005年第一季度以來，美國制造業(yè)的單位勞動(dòng)力成本增加不到4%。根據(jù)我們的統(tǒng)計(jì)，中國工業(yè)的單位勞動(dòng)力成本同期增加了25%。

　　Those estimates are rough and ready. There are no official statistics on Chinas unit labourcosts. Our calculations are based on the value-added in industry and the wage bill of urban factories, which does not count the town andvillage enterprises that employ over two-thirds of Chinas metal-bashers. But the urbanplants probably churn out a big share of the goodies that America buys.

　　這些都是大致的估算。中國的單位勞動(dòng)力成本并沒有官方統(tǒng)計(jì)。我們的估算是基于工業(yè)的增值和城市工廠的工資，這并不包括雇傭逾三分之二中國金屬鑄造工人的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)。但是城市工廠可能生產(chǎn)了美國購買的大部分產(chǎn)品。

　　The combination of a 24% rise in the Yuan against the dollar and a 21% increase in Chineseunit labour costs, relative to Americas, explains the steep appreciation shown in the chart.The Yuan may well still be undervalued but our index suggests American manufacturingshould have less to fear from Chinese competition than it did five years ago. Until June 2009appreciation was largely because of the stronger Yuan. Since then it is largely becauseChinas unit labour costs have grown much faster than Americas. Employers in Chinascoastal factories have suffered labour shortages and strikes. Americas factories havereported strong productivity gains as they have wrung more out of the workers thatsurvived the recession .

　　人民幣對(duì)美元升值24%和中國的單位勞動(dòng)力成本相對(duì)美國增加21%相結(jié)合解釋了圖表中人民幣-美元匯率的大幅升值。人民幣幣值可能仍然被低估，但是我們的指數(shù)表明，與5年前相比，美國的制造商不應(yīng)該那么擔(dān)心中國的競(jìng)爭了。 2009年6月前，匯率上升主要是人民幣升值造成的。此后，主要是因?yàn)橹袊鴨挝粍趧?dòng)力成本的增長速度比美國快得多。中國沿海工廠的雇主遭受了用工荒和罷工。美國工廠稱，由于它們從挺過經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的工人那里獲得了更多東西，生產(chǎn)率大幅提高。

　　Of course, China and America do not trade only with each other. Chinas big surpluses andAmericas big deficits depend on the real exchange rate between them and all of theirtrading partners. But calculating that would require timely estimates of unit labour costs forall of Chinas trading partners. That is a bit too laborious.

　　當(dāng)然，中美并不是只與對(duì)方展開貿(mào)易。中國的順差和美國的巨大逆差取決于兩國以及它們所有的貿(mào)易伙伴之間的實(shí)際匯率。但是計(jì)算這一實(shí)際匯率需要及時(shí)地估計(jì)所有中國貿(mào)易伙伴的勞動(dòng)力成本。這有點(diǎn)過于費(fèi)力了。

　　AMERICAN manufacturers complain that Chinaundervalues its exchange rate. But which one? Thenominal exchange rate is now 6.67 Yuan to thedollar, having strengthened by almost 2% sinceSeptember 5th and by24% since 2005.

　　美國制造商抱怨中國低估其匯率。但是是哪項(xiàng)匯率?名義匯率現(xiàn)在是1美元兌6.67元，自9月5日以來上升了近2%，自2005年以來上升了24%。

　　But Chinas real exchange rate with America has strengthened by almost 50% since 2005,according to calculations by The Economist . A real exchange rate takes accountof price movements in each country. If prices rise faster in China than in America, Chinasreal exchange rate goes up, even if its nominal exchange rate stays the same. Thatsbecause higher prices at home make Chinas firms less competitive abroad, just as if theircurrency had gone up.

　　但是根據(jù)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的計(jì)算，自2005年以來，中國與美國的實(shí)際匯率上升了近50%。實(shí)際匯率把各國的價(jià)格波動(dòng)也考慮在內(nèi)。如果中國的物價(jià)上漲速度比美國快，即便其名義匯率保持不變，中國的實(shí)際匯率也會(huì)上升。這是因?yàn)閲鴥?nèi)較高的物價(jià)是中國公司在國外的競(jìng)爭力減弱，正如其貨幣升值一樣。

　　To calculate the real exchange rate, you need a gauge of prices in each country. Manyeconomists use the consumer-price index . But the CPI contains lots of goods andservices that cannot be traded across borders. Our measure of thereal exchange rate, which we will regularly update, offers a more direct measure ofcompetitiveness by looking instead at unit labour costs: the price of labour per widget.These costs go up when wages rise or productivity falls. In Americanmanufacturing, unit labour costs have risen by less than 4% since the first quarter of 2005,according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. In Chinese industry they have risen by 25% overthat period, according to our sums.

　　計(jì)算實(shí)際匯率，你需要每個(gè)國家的物價(jià)指標(biāo)。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用的是消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)。但是消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)包含了許多無法跨境交易的商品和服務(wù)。我們實(shí)際匯率的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)關(guān)注的是單位勞動(dòng)力成本，更加直接的衡量競(jìng)爭力：每件產(chǎn)品的勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格。這些價(jià)格在工資上漲或生產(chǎn)率下降時(shí)就會(huì)上漲。根據(jù)勞動(dòng)統(tǒng)計(jì)局的數(shù)據(jù)，自2005年第一季度以來，美國制造業(yè)的單位勞動(dòng)力成本增加不到4%。根據(jù)我們的統(tǒng)計(jì)，中國工業(yè)的單位勞動(dòng)力成本同期增加了25%。

　　Those estimates are rough and ready. There are no official statistics on Chinas unit labourcosts. Our calculations are based on the value-added in industry and the wage bill of urban factories, which does not count the town andvillage enterprises that employ over two-thirds of Chinas metal-bashers. But the urbanplants probably churn out a big share of the goodies that America buys.

　　這些都是大致的估算。中國的單位勞動(dòng)力成本并沒有官方統(tǒng)計(jì)。我們的估算是基于工業(yè)的增值和城市工廠的工資，這并不包括雇傭逾三分之二中國金屬鑄造工人的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)。但是城市工廠可能生產(chǎn)了美國購買的大部分產(chǎn)品。

　　The combination of a 24% rise in the Yuan against the dollar and a 21% increase in Chineseunit labour costs, relative to Americas, explains the steep appreciation shown in the chart.The Yuan may well still be undervalued but our index suggests American manufacturingshould have less to fear from Chinese competition than it did five years ago. Until June 2009appreciation was largely because of the stronger Yuan. Since then it is largely becauseChinas unit labour costs have grown much faster than Americas. Employers in Chinascoastal factories have suffered labour shortages and strikes. Americas factories havereported strong productivity gains as they have wrung more out of the workers thatsurvived the recession .

　　人民幣對(duì)美元升值24%和中國的單位勞動(dòng)力成本相對(duì)美國增加21%相結(jié)合解釋了圖表中人民幣-美元匯率的大幅升值。人民幣幣值可能仍然被低估，但是我們的指數(shù)表明，與5年前相比，美國的制造商不應(yīng)該那么擔(dān)心中國的競(jìng)爭了。 2009年6月前，匯率上升主要是人民幣升值造成的。此后，主要是因?yàn)橹袊鴨挝粍趧?dòng)力成本的增長速度比美國快得多。中國沿海工廠的雇主遭受了用工荒和罷工。美國工廠稱，由于它們從挺過經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的工人那里獲得了更多東西，生產(chǎn)率大幅提高。

　　Of course, China and America do not trade only with each other. Chinas big surpluses andAmericas big deficits depend on the real exchange rate between them and all of theirtrading partners. But calculating that would require timely estimates of unit labour costs forall of Chinas trading partners. That is a bit too laborious.

　　當(dāng)然，中美并不是只與對(duì)方展開貿(mào)易。中國的順差和美國的巨大逆差取決于兩國以及它們所有的貿(mào)易伙伴之間的實(shí)際匯率。但是計(jì)算這一實(shí)際匯率需要及時(shí)地估計(jì)所有中國貿(mào)易伙伴的勞動(dòng)力成本。這有點(diǎn)過于費(fèi)力了。