日本的巨額養老金
2023復習正是強化復習階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經濟學人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Japan s pension giant 日本的巨額養老金 Risk on 追逐風險 The world s largest pension fund is changing theway it invests, with big consequences for themarket. 這個世界上最大的養老金基金正在改變它的投資方式，并在市場上引起重大改變。 WHEN George Soros, a billionaire investor, met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, atDavos in January, he hectored him about asset management. 當億萬富翁及投資人喬治?索羅斯于一月份在達沃斯遇到日本首相安倍晉三時，他拿資產管理嚇唬了安倍一番。 Japan s massive public pension fund needed to take more risk, he reportedly told Mr Abe. 據報道，他告訴安倍說，日本的大型公共養老金基金需要敢于承擔風險。 With 128.6 trillion of assets, the Government Pension Investment Fund is the world s biggestpublic-sector investor, 擁有128.6萬億日元的日本政府養老金投資基金是世界上最大的公共部門投資機構， outgunning both foreign rivals and Arab sovereign-wealth funds. 超過了國外的類似機構以及阿拉伯主權基金。 Yet its mountain of money is run by risk-averse bureaucrats using an investment strategynot much more adventurous than stuffing bundles of yen under a futon. 然而這座錢山卻由小心翼翼的官僚們經營，他們的投資策略不會比把整捆的日圓放在蒲團下面更冒險。 It keeps around two-thirds of assets in bonds, mostly of the local variety. 其資產的三分之二是債券，而且主要是國內債券。 Like an investing novice, it mostly follows indices passively, and hardly ventures abroad. 它跟個投資新手一樣，只是消極地跟著指數走，并且極少到國外去冒險。 The government would dearly love to oblige Mr Soros. 日本政府可是迫不及待地想滿足索羅斯的一番要求。 Mr Abe is now taking steps to overhaul the fund. 安倍現在正著手改革養老基金。 In November last year an official panel laid out a plan of far-reaching reform, 去年十一月，一個官方顧問團提交了一份大范圍的改革計劃， some of which could take effect as soon as this year. 其中一些甚至在今年就會產生效果。 To boost returns to future pensioners, it concluded, 計劃中總結到，為大幅度提高未來養老金領取者的收益， the GPIF should reduce its reliance on bonds, head into stocks and also invest in differentasset classes including infrastructure and venture capital. GPIF應當減少對債券的依賴，投入股票市場并投資其他類型的資產，比如基礎設施和風險投資。 Most radically, the government wants to break the ties that bind the GPIF to the Ministry ofHealth, Labour and Welfare. 政府最為激進的想法莫過于準備解除厚生勞動省對政府養老金投資基金的約束。 It is the ministry s cautious bureaucrats that keep the fund so averse to risk-taking. 正是小心翼翼的官僚作風使得該基金對風險敬而遠之。 Even with a low return, of an annualised 1.54% over the past 12 years, 雖然過去12年間的年化利率低達1.54%， the GPIF has met its own targets cheaply. 政府養老金投資基金還是達到了自己的既定目標。 The ministry is frugal to the point of meanness. 勞動省的作風與其說是節儉還不如說是吝嗇。 The fund s 80-strong staff are often unable to buy the market data they need. 基金的80名員工甚至經常不能購買需要的市場資料。 It is one thing to keep costs low, 減少開支是一回事， quite another to forgo receptionists, as the GPIF does at its non-descript office in Tokyo. 可連前臺咨詢員都沒有就太過了，而政府養老金投資基金在東京簡陋的辦事處就是如此。 For Mr Abe, geeing up the fund is part of his plan to revive Japan s economy, 對安倍來說，帶動養老基金發展就如同日本中央銀行在2023年4月大力推行的超寬松貨幣政策一樣， alongside a radical monetary easing which the Bank of Japan began in earnest in April 2023. 是他日本經濟振興計劃的一部分。 As well as defeating deflation, Mr Abe seeks to boost risk-taking in the economy. 除了對付通貨緊縮，安倍還在尋求方法來鼓勵日本經濟承擔更多風險。 The planned changes to the fund also include demanding better corporate governance fromJapan s large companies. 養老基金改革計劃中還包括要求日本大型企業實現更好的公司治理。 Already, the markets are anticipating the effect of the slow shift in direction. 市場已經預見到了這次緩慢的方向性轉變可能帶來的影響。 GPIF s influence is amplified by other public pension investors following its lead. GPIF造成的影響隨著其他公共養老金投資機構的跟風而進一步擴大。 The fund lowered the weight of Japanese government bonds from 62% in its portfolio inMarch 2023 to 55% at the close of the year, 該基金已經將投資組合中日本國債的比重從2023年3月的62%降低到了年底時的55%， putting most of the moneyroughly 8 trillioninto local and foreign shares instead. 并把這些資金中的大部分資金，約有8萬億日元，投入到了國內外股票中。 The GPIF s shift may have contributed to the giddy rise of Japan s stockmarket, GPIF的轉型可能導致了日本股票市場的突然上漲， which was one of the best-performing rich-country bourses in 2023. 使其成為2023年度富有國家中表現最好的股票交易所。 For investors, the likelihood that the GPIF will continue shifting towards equities is aconvincing reason to buy Japanese shares. GPIF繼續轉向股票市場的趨勢使得投資者大膽地買入股票。 That in turn reinforces Mr Abe s will to enact the reform. 這也反過來實現了安倍推動改革的愿望。 So far this year the Nikkei s rise, 日經指數的上漲是本屆政府受到廣泛歡迎的原因之一， an important contributor to the government s broad popularity, has stalled. 不過目前，這股增長勢頭已經停止。 But for every equity punter cheering on the reform, 和股票持有者一致對改革拍手稱快不同， there is a JGB holder fretful about the eventual impact on prices if the asset class s biggestbacker continues to sell off. 一位國債持有者對于國債最大持有者的持續拋售對于其價格的影響感到非常擔憂。 Investors have long predicted a meltdown in the Japanese bond market, given that itspublic debt stands at nearly 240% of GDP. 一直以來，投資者們都預測日本債券市場可能暴跌，因為日本的國債達到了GDP的240%之巨。 One explanation of why the cost of borrowing for the government has remained low is thatJGBs are chiefly held by loyal local banks and by public pension funds, 而國債利率一直維持在低水平是由于日本國債的持有者主要是忠誠的國內銀行以及公共養老金基金， rather than by foreigners who would demand a higher risk premium. 而非要求風險收益的國外機構。 Yet the landscape is changing as retirees draw down their savings, meaning thatinstitutional holders will become still more important. 然而隨著退休人員減少了他們的儲蓄，形勢將發生改變，這些機構持有者變得更為重要了。 Ominously, Japan s current account has moved into deficit. 一個不詳的預兆是，日本的財政已經出現了赤字。 For the time being, the monetary easing undertaken by the Bank of Japan will more thanoffset the effect of any bond sales by the GPIF. 目前，日本中央銀行實行的貨幣寬松政策能夠輕松抵消GPIF出售國債帶來的影響。 So now is exactly the right moment for the fund to sell with no fear of triggering a broadersell-off, argues Takatoshi Ito, 眼下正是基金賣出國債的大好時機，而不用擔心引起大量賣出。 the chairman of the government-backed panel on the GPIF. 所以GPIF的政府顧問團主席伊藤隆敏認為。 Yet though the fund may at last escape its duty of holding oodles of government debt, 該基金或許最終難免逃避持有大量國家債券的職責， the shift could exacerbate problems once the central bank starts eventually to withdrawfrom its quantitative easing. 不過一旦中央銀行最終停止超寬松貨幣政策，這種轉型將使情況進一步惡化。 The partial withdrawal of the GPIF from the market, says Naka Matsuzawa, chiefstrategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, may contribute to a crisis later on. 野村證券首席策略師Naka Matsuzawa認為，GPIF在市場上部分撤資會引起后續的蕭條。 When in December Mr Ito called for a radical cut in the GPIF s bond portfolio from 55%down to 35%, yields on JGBs temporarily rose. 去年12月，伊藤呼吁GPIF將債券投資比重由55%大幅度減少到35%時，日本國債的收益曾短期上升。 The basic arguments for overhauling the fund are persuasive. 改革養老基金的基本論點非常有說服力。 With an ageing population, meaning the fund is already paying out more in benefits than itreceives in contributions, 隨著老齡化加劇，基金已經開始入不敷出了。 it can ill afford to settle for a low-risk, low-returns approach. 如果繼續采用低風險、低收益的投資策略，基金可能會付不出養老金來。 Its strategy stands in contrast to pension pots in Canada and Australia, for example, whichare given leeway to be more daring. 該基金的策略和諸如加拿大或澳大利亞的養老金機構相反，這些養老基金擁有承擔風險的余地。 They also regularly badger managers of the firms whose shares they own. 同時它們還監督所持股票的公司的經理人們。
2023復習正是強化復習階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經濟學人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Japan s pension giant 日本的巨額養老金 Risk on 追逐風險 The world s largest pension fund is changing theway it invests, with big consequences for themarket. 這個世界上最大的養老金基金正在改變它的投資方式，并在市場上引起重大改變。 WHEN George Soros, a billionaire investor, met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, atDavos in January, he hectored him about asset management. 當億萬富翁及投資人喬治?索羅斯于一月份在達沃斯遇到日本首相安倍晉三時，他拿資產管理嚇唬了安倍一番。 Japan s massive public pension fund needed to take more risk, he reportedly told Mr Abe. 據報道，他告訴安倍說，日本的大型公共養老金基金需要敢于承擔風險。 With 128.6 trillion of assets, the Government Pension Investment Fund is the world s biggestpublic-sector investor, 擁有128.6萬億日元的日本政府養老金投資基金是世界上最大的公共部門投資機構， outgunning both foreign rivals and Arab sovereign-wealth funds. 超過了國外的類似機構以及阿拉伯主權基金。 Yet its mountain of money is run by risk-averse bureaucrats using an investment strategynot much more adventurous than stuffing bundles of yen under a futon. 然而這座錢山卻由小心翼翼的官僚們經營，他們的投資策略不會比把整捆的日圓放在蒲團下面更冒險。 It keeps around two-thirds of assets in bonds, mostly of the local variety. 其資產的三分之二是債券，而且主要是國內債券。 Like an investing novice, it mostly follows indices passively, and hardly ventures abroad. 它跟個投資新手一樣，只是消極地跟著指數走，并且極少到國外去冒險。 The government would dearly love to oblige Mr Soros. 日本政府可是迫不及待地想滿足索羅斯的一番要求。 Mr Abe is now taking steps to overhaul the fund. 安倍現在正著手改革養老基金。 In November last year an official panel laid out a plan of far-reaching reform, 去年十一月，一個官方顧問團提交了一份大范圍的改革計劃， some of which could take effect as soon as this year. 其中一些甚至在今年就會產生效果。 To boost returns to future pensioners, it concluded, 計劃中總結到，為大幅度提高未來養老金領取者的收益， the GPIF should reduce its reliance on bonds, head into stocks and also invest in differentasset classes including infrastructure and venture capital. GPIF應當減少對債券的依賴，投入股票市場并投資其他類型的資產，比如基礎設施和風險投資。 Most radically, the government wants to break the ties that bind the GPIF to the Ministry ofHealth, Labour and Welfare. 政府最為激進的想法莫過于準備解除厚生勞動省對政府養老金投資基金的約束。 It is the ministry s cautious bureaucrats that keep the fund so averse to risk-taking. 正是小心翼翼的官僚作風使得該基金對風險敬而遠之。 Even with a low return, of an annualised 1.54% over the past 12 years, 雖然過去12年間的年化利率低達1.54%， the GPIF has met its own targets cheaply. 政府養老金投資基金還是達到了自己的既定目標。 The ministry is frugal to the point of meanness. 勞動省的作風與其說是節儉還不如說是吝嗇。 The fund s 80-strong staff are often unable to buy the market data they need. 基金的80名員工甚至經常不能購買需要的市場資料。 It is one thing to keep costs low, 減少開支是一回事， quite another to forgo receptionists, as the GPIF does at its non-descript office in Tokyo. 可連前臺咨詢員都沒有就太過了，而政府養老金投資基金在東京簡陋的辦事處就是如此。 For Mr Abe, geeing up the fund is part of his plan to revive Japan s economy, 對安倍來說，帶動養老基金發展就如同日本中央銀行在2023年4月大力推行的超寬松貨幣政策一樣， alongside a radical monetary easing which the Bank of Japan began in earnest in April 2023. 是他日本經濟振興計劃的一部分。 As well as defeating deflation, Mr Abe seeks to boost risk-taking in the economy. 除了對付通貨緊縮，安倍還在尋求方法來鼓勵日本經濟承擔更多風險。 The planned changes to the fund also include demanding better corporate governance fromJapan s large companies. 養老基金改革計劃中還包括要求日本大型企業實現更好的公司治理。 Already, the markets are anticipating the effect of the slow shift in direction. 市場已經預見到了這次緩慢的方向性轉變可能帶來的影響。 GPIF s influence is amplified by other public pension investors following its lead. GPIF造成的影響隨著其他公共養老金投資機構的跟風而進一步擴大。 The fund lowered the weight of Japanese government bonds from 62% in its portfolio inMarch 2023 to 55% at the close of the year, 該基金已經將投資組合中日本國債的比重從2023年3月的62%降低到了年底時的55%， putting most of the moneyroughly 8 trillioninto local and foreign shares instead. 并把這些資金中的大部分資金，約有8萬億日元，投入到了國內外股票中。 The GPIF s shift may have contributed to the giddy rise of Japan s stockmarket, GPIF的轉型可能導致了日本股票市場的突然上漲， which was one of the best-performing rich-country bourses in 2023. 使其成為2023年度富有國家中表現最好的股票交易所。 For investors, the likelihood that the GPIF will continue shifting towards equities is aconvincing reason to buy Japanese shares. GPIF繼續轉向股票市場的趨勢使得投資者大膽地買入股票。 That in turn reinforces Mr Abe s will to enact the reform. 這也反過來實現了安倍推動改革的愿望。 So far this year the Nikkei s rise, 日經指數的上漲是本屆政府受到廣泛歡迎的原因之一， an important contributor to the government s broad popularity, has stalled. 不過目前，這股增長勢頭已經停止。 But for every equity punter cheering on the reform, 和股票持有者一致對改革拍手稱快不同， there is a JGB holder fretful about the eventual impact on prices if the asset class s biggestbacker continues to sell off. 一位國債持有者對于國債最大持有者的持續拋售對于其價格的影響感到非常擔憂。 Investors have long predicted a meltdown in the Japanese bond market, given that itspublic debt stands at nearly 240% of GDP. 一直以來，投資者們都預測日本債券市場可能暴跌，因為日本的國債達到了GDP的240%之巨。 One explanation of why the cost of borrowing for the government has remained low is thatJGBs are chiefly held by loyal local banks and by public pension funds, 而國債利率一直維持在低水平是由于日本國債的持有者主要是忠誠的國內銀行以及公共養老金基金， rather than by foreigners who would demand a higher risk premium. 而非要求風險收益的國外機構。 Yet the landscape is changing as retirees draw down their savings, meaning thatinstitutional holders will become still more important. 然而隨著退休人員減少了他們的儲蓄，形勢將發生改變，這些機構持有者變得更為重要了。 Ominously, Japan s current account has moved into deficit. 一個不詳的預兆是，日本的財政已經出現了赤字。 For the time being, the monetary easing undertaken by the Bank of Japan will more thanoffset the effect of any bond sales by the GPIF. 目前，日本中央銀行實行的貨幣寬松政策能夠輕松抵消GPIF出售國債帶來的影響。 So now is exactly the right moment for the fund to sell with no fear of triggering a broadersell-off, argues Takatoshi Ito, 眼下正是基金賣出國債的大好時機，而不用擔心引起大量賣出。 the chairman of the government-backed panel on the GPIF. 所以GPIF的政府顧問團主席伊藤隆敏認為。 Yet though the fund may at last escape its duty of holding oodles of government debt, 該基金或許最終難免逃避持有大量國家債券的職責， the shift could exacerbate problems once the central bank starts eventually to withdrawfrom its quantitative easing. 不過一旦中央銀行最終停止超寬松貨幣政策，這種轉型將使情況進一步惡化。 The partial withdrawal of the GPIF from the market, says Naka Matsuzawa, chiefstrategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, may contribute to a crisis later on. 野村證券首席策略師Naka Matsuzawa認為，GPIF在市場上部分撤資會引起后續的蕭條。 When in December Mr Ito called for a radical cut in the GPIF s bond portfolio from 55%down to 35%, yields on JGBs temporarily rose. 去年12月，伊藤呼吁GPIF將債券投資比重由55%大幅度減少到35%時，日本國債的收益曾短期上升。 The basic arguments for overhauling the fund are persuasive. 改革養老基金的基本論點非常有說服力。 With an ageing population, meaning the fund is already paying out more in benefits than itreceives in contributions, 隨著老齡化加劇，基金已經開始入不敷出了。 it can ill afford to settle for a low-risk, low-returns approach. 如果繼續采用低風險、低收益的投資策略，基金可能會付不出養老金來。 Its strategy stands in contrast to pension pots in Canada and Australia, for example, whichare given leeway to be more daring. 該基金的策略和諸如加拿大或澳大利亞的養老金機構相反，這些養老基金擁有承擔風險的余地。 They also regularly badger managers of the firms whose shares they own. 同時它們還監督所持股票的公司的經理人們。
