日本的巨額養(yǎng)老金
2023復(fù)習(xí)正是強(qiáng)化復(fù)習(xí)階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項(xiàng)。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅(jiān)持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強(qiáng)烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認(rèn)真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Japan s pension giant 日本的巨額養(yǎng)老金 Risk on 追逐風(fēng)險(xiǎn) The world s largest pension fund is changing theway it invests, with big consequences for themarket. 這個(gè)世界上最大的養(yǎng)老金基金正在改變它的投資方式，并在市場(chǎng)上引起重大改變。 WHEN George Soros, a billionaire investor, met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, atDavos in January, he hectored him about asset management. 當(dāng)億萬富翁及投資人喬治?索羅斯于一月份在達(dá)沃斯遇到日本首相安倍晉三時(shí)，他拿資產(chǎn)管理嚇唬了安倍一番。 Japan s massive public pension fund needed to take more risk, he reportedly told Mr Abe. 據(jù)報(bào)道，他告訴安倍說，日本的大型公共養(yǎng)老金基金需要敢于承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 With 128.6 trillion of assets, the Government Pension Investment Fund is the world s biggestpublic-sector investor, 擁有128.6萬億日元的日本政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金是世界上最大的公共部門投資機(jī)構(gòu)， outgunning both foreign rivals and Arab sovereign-wealth funds. 超過了國(guó)外的類似機(jī)構(gòu)以及阿拉伯主權(quán)基金。 Yet its mountain of money is run by risk-averse bureaucrats using an investment strategynot much more adventurous than stuffing bundles of yen under a futon. 然而這座錢山卻由小心翼翼的官僚們經(jīng)營(yíng)，他們的投資策略不會(huì)比把整捆的日?qǐng)A放在蒲團(tuán)下面更冒險(xiǎn)。 It keeps around two-thirds of assets in bonds, mostly of the local variety. 其資產(chǎn)的三分之二是債券，而且主要是國(guó)內(nèi)債券。 Like an investing novice, it mostly follows indices passively, and hardly ventures abroad. 它跟個(gè)投資新手一樣，只是消極地跟著指數(shù)走，并且極少到國(guó)外去冒險(xiǎn)。 The government would dearly love to oblige Mr Soros. 日本政府可是迫不及待地想滿足索羅斯的一番要求。 Mr Abe is now taking steps to overhaul the fund. 安倍現(xiàn)在正著手改革養(yǎng)老基金。 In November last year an official panel laid out a plan of far-reaching reform, 去年十一月，一個(gè)官方顧問團(tuán)提交了一份大范圍的改革計(jì)劃， some of which could take effect as soon as this year. 其中一些甚至在今年就會(huì)產(chǎn)生效果。 To boost returns to future pensioners, it concluded, 計(jì)劃中總結(jié)到，為大幅度提高未來養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者的收益， the GPIF should reduce its reliance on bonds, head into stocks and also invest in differentasset classes including infrastructure and venture capital. GPIF應(yīng)當(dāng)減少對(duì)債券的依賴，投入股票市場(chǎng)并投資其他類型的資產(chǎn)，比如基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。 Most radically, the government wants to break the ties that bind the GPIF to the Ministry ofHealth, Labour and Welfare. 政府最為激進(jìn)的想法莫過于準(zhǔn)備解除厚生勞動(dòng)省對(duì)政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金的約束。 It is the ministry s cautious bureaucrats that keep the fund so averse to risk-taking. 正是小心翼翼的官僚作風(fēng)使得該基金對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敬而遠(yuǎn)之。 Even with a low return, of an annualised 1.54% over the past 12 years, 雖然過去12年間的年化利率低達(dá)1.54%， the GPIF has met its own targets cheaply. 政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金還是達(dá)到了自己的既定目標(biāo)。 The ministry is frugal to the point of meanness. 勞動(dòng)省的作風(fēng)與其說是節(jié)儉還不如說是吝嗇。 The fund s 80-strong staff are often unable to buy the market data they need. 基金的80名員工甚至經(jīng)常不能購買需要的市場(chǎng)資料。 It is one thing to keep costs low, 減少開支是一回事， quite another to forgo receptionists, as the GPIF does at its non-descript office in Tokyo. 可連前臺(tái)咨詢員都沒有就太過了，而政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金在東京簡(jiǎn)陋的辦事處就是如此。 For Mr Abe, geeing up the fund is part of his plan to revive Japan s economy, 對(duì)安倍來說，帶動(dòng)養(yǎng)老基金發(fā)展就如同日本中央銀行在2023年4月大力推行的超寬松貨幣政策一樣， alongside a radical monetary easing which the Bank of Japan began in earnest in April 2023. 是他日本經(jīng)濟(jì)振興計(jì)劃的一部分。 As well as defeating deflation, Mr Abe seeks to boost risk-taking in the economy. 除了對(duì)付通貨緊縮，安倍還在尋求方法來鼓勵(lì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)承擔(dān)更多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 The planned changes to the fund also include demanding better corporate governance fromJapan s large companies. 養(yǎng)老基金改革計(jì)劃中還包括要求日本大型企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)更好的公司治理。 Already, the markets are anticipating the effect of the slow shift in direction. 市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)預(yù)見到了這次緩慢的方向性轉(zhuǎn)變可能帶來的影響。 GPIF s influence is amplified by other public pension investors following its lead. GPIF造成的影響隨著其他公共養(yǎng)老金投資機(jī)構(gòu)的跟風(fēng)而進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。 The fund lowered the weight of Japanese government bonds from 62% in its portfolio inMarch 2023 to 55% at the close of the year, 該基金已經(jīng)將投資組合中日本國(guó)債的比重從2023年3月的62%降低到了年底時(shí)的55%， putting most of the moneyroughly 8 trillioninto local and foreign shares instead. 并把這些資金中的大部分資金，約有8萬億日元，投入到了國(guó)內(nèi)外股票中。 The GPIF s shift may have contributed to the giddy rise of Japan s stockmarket, GPIF的轉(zhuǎn)型可能導(dǎo)致了日本股票市場(chǎng)的突然上漲， which was one of the best-performing rich-country bourses in 2023. 使其成為2023年度富有國(guó)家中表現(xiàn)最好的股票交易所。 For investors, the likelihood that the GPIF will continue shifting towards equities is aconvincing reason to buy Japanese shares. GPIF繼續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)向股票市場(chǎng)的趨勢(shì)使得投資者大膽地買入股票。 That in turn reinforces Mr Abe s will to enact the reform. 這也反過來實(shí)現(xiàn)了安倍推動(dòng)改革的愿望。 So far this year the Nikkei s rise, 日經(jīng)指數(shù)的上漲是本屆政府受到廣泛歡迎的原因之一， an important contributor to the government s broad popularity, has stalled. 不過目前，這股增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭已經(jīng)停止。 But for every equity punter cheering on the reform, 和股票持有者一致對(duì)改革拍手稱快不同， there is a JGB holder fretful about the eventual impact on prices if the asset class s biggestbacker continues to sell off. 一位國(guó)債持有者對(duì)于國(guó)債最大持有者的持續(xù)拋售對(duì)于其價(jià)格的影響感到非常擔(dān)憂。 Investors have long predicted a meltdown in the Japanese bond market, given that itspublic debt stands at nearly 240% of GDP. 一直以來，投資者們都預(yù)測(cè)日本債券市場(chǎng)可能暴跌，因?yàn)槿毡镜膰?guó)債達(dá)到了GDP的240%之巨。 One explanation of why the cost of borrowing for the government has remained low is thatJGBs are chiefly held by loyal local banks and by public pension funds, 而國(guó)債利率一直維持在低水平是由于日本國(guó)債的持有者主要是忠誠(chéng)的國(guó)內(nèi)銀行以及公共養(yǎng)老金基金， rather than by foreigners who would demand a higher risk premium. 而非要求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益的國(guó)外機(jī)構(gòu)。 Yet the landscape is changing as retirees draw down their savings, meaning thatinstitutional holders will become still more important. 然而隨著退休人員減少了他們的儲(chǔ)蓄，形勢(shì)將發(fā)生改變，這些機(jī)構(gòu)持有者變得更為重要了。 Ominously, Japan s current account has moved into deficit. 一個(gè)不詳?shù)念A(yù)兆是，日本的財(cái)政已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了赤字。 For the time being, the monetary easing undertaken by the Bank of Japan will more thanoffset the effect of any bond sales by the GPIF. 目前，日本中央銀行實(shí)行的貨幣寬松政策能夠輕松抵消GPIF出售國(guó)債帶來的影響。 So now is exactly the right moment for the fund to sell with no fear of triggering a broadersell-off, argues Takatoshi Ito, 眼下正是基金賣出國(guó)債的大好時(shí)機(jī)，而不用擔(dān)心引起大量賣出。 the chairman of the government-backed panel on the GPIF. 所以GPIF的政府顧問團(tuán)主席伊藤隆敏認(rèn)為。 Yet though the fund may at last escape its duty of holding oodles of government debt, 該基金或許最終難免逃避持有大量國(guó)家債券的職責(zé)， the shift could exacerbate problems once the central bank starts eventually to withdrawfrom its quantitative easing. 不過一旦中央銀行最終停止超寬松貨幣政策，這種轉(zhuǎn)型將使情況進(jìn)一步惡化。 The partial withdrawal of the GPIF from the market, says Naka Matsuzawa, chiefstrategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, may contribute to a crisis later on. 野村證券首席策略師Naka Matsuzawa認(rèn)為，GPIF在市場(chǎng)上部分撤資會(huì)引起后續(xù)的蕭條。 When in December Mr Ito called for a radical cut in the GPIF s bond portfolio from 55%down to 35%, yields on JGBs temporarily rose. 去年12月，伊藤呼吁GPIF將債券投資比重由55%大幅度減少到35%時(shí)，日本國(guó)債的收益曾短期上升。 The basic arguments for overhauling the fund are persuasive. 改革養(yǎng)老基金的基本論點(diǎn)非常有說服力。 With an ageing population, meaning the fund is already paying out more in benefits than itreceives in contributions, 隨著老齡化加劇，基金已經(jīng)開始入不敷出了。 it can ill afford to settle for a low-risk, low-returns approach. 如果繼續(xù)采用低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、低收益的投資策略，基金可能會(huì)付不出養(yǎng)老金來。 Its strategy stands in contrast to pension pots in Canada and Australia, for example, whichare given leeway to be more daring. 該基金的策略和諸如加拿大或澳大利亞的養(yǎng)老金機(jī)構(gòu)相反，這些養(yǎng)老基金擁有承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的余地。 They also regularly badger managers of the firms whose shares they own. 同時(shí)它們還監(jiān)督所持股票的公司的經(jīng)理人們。
2023復(fù)習(xí)正是強(qiáng)化復(fù)習(xí)階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項(xiàng)。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅(jiān)持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強(qiáng)烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認(rèn)真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Japan s pension giant 日本的巨額養(yǎng)老金 Risk on 追逐風(fēng)險(xiǎn) The world s largest pension fund is changing theway it invests, with big consequences for themarket. 這個(gè)世界上最大的養(yǎng)老金基金正在改變它的投資方式，并在市場(chǎng)上引起重大改變。 WHEN George Soros, a billionaire investor, met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, atDavos in January, he hectored him about asset management. 當(dāng)億萬富翁及投資人喬治?索羅斯于一月份在達(dá)沃斯遇到日本首相安倍晉三時(shí)，他拿資產(chǎn)管理嚇唬了安倍一番。 Japan s massive public pension fund needed to take more risk, he reportedly told Mr Abe. 據(jù)報(bào)道，他告訴安倍說，日本的大型公共養(yǎng)老金基金需要敢于承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 With 128.6 trillion of assets, the Government Pension Investment Fund is the world s biggestpublic-sector investor, 擁有128.6萬億日元的日本政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金是世界上最大的公共部門投資機(jī)構(gòu)， outgunning both foreign rivals and Arab sovereign-wealth funds. 超過了國(guó)外的類似機(jī)構(gòu)以及阿拉伯主權(quán)基金。 Yet its mountain of money is run by risk-averse bureaucrats using an investment strategynot much more adventurous than stuffing bundles of yen under a futon. 然而這座錢山卻由小心翼翼的官僚們經(jīng)營(yíng)，他們的投資策略不會(huì)比把整捆的日?qǐng)A放在蒲團(tuán)下面更冒險(xiǎn)。 It keeps around two-thirds of assets in bonds, mostly of the local variety. 其資產(chǎn)的三分之二是債券，而且主要是國(guó)內(nèi)債券。 Like an investing novice, it mostly follows indices passively, and hardly ventures abroad. 它跟個(gè)投資新手一樣，只是消極地跟著指數(shù)走，并且極少到國(guó)外去冒險(xiǎn)。 The government would dearly love to oblige Mr Soros. 日本政府可是迫不及待地想滿足索羅斯的一番要求。 Mr Abe is now taking steps to overhaul the fund. 安倍現(xiàn)在正著手改革養(yǎng)老基金。 In November last year an official panel laid out a plan of far-reaching reform, 去年十一月，一個(gè)官方顧問團(tuán)提交了一份大范圍的改革計(jì)劃， some of which could take effect as soon as this year. 其中一些甚至在今年就會(huì)產(chǎn)生效果。 To boost returns to future pensioners, it concluded, 計(jì)劃中總結(jié)到，為大幅度提高未來養(yǎng)老金領(lǐng)取者的收益， the GPIF should reduce its reliance on bonds, head into stocks and also invest in differentasset classes including infrastructure and venture capital. GPIF應(yīng)當(dāng)減少對(duì)債券的依賴，投入股票市場(chǎng)并投資其他類型的資產(chǎn)，比如基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。 Most radically, the government wants to break the ties that bind the GPIF to the Ministry ofHealth, Labour and Welfare. 政府最為激進(jìn)的想法莫過于準(zhǔn)備解除厚生勞動(dòng)省對(duì)政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金的約束。 It is the ministry s cautious bureaucrats that keep the fund so averse to risk-taking. 正是小心翼翼的官僚作風(fēng)使得該基金對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敬而遠(yuǎn)之。 Even with a low return, of an annualised 1.54% over the past 12 years, 雖然過去12年間的年化利率低達(dá)1.54%， the GPIF has met its own targets cheaply. 政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金還是達(dá)到了自己的既定目標(biāo)。 The ministry is frugal to the point of meanness. 勞動(dòng)省的作風(fēng)與其說是節(jié)儉還不如說是吝嗇。 The fund s 80-strong staff are often unable to buy the market data they need. 基金的80名員工甚至經(jīng)常不能購買需要的市場(chǎng)資料。 It is one thing to keep costs low, 減少開支是一回事， quite another to forgo receptionists, as the GPIF does at its non-descript office in Tokyo. 可連前臺(tái)咨詢員都沒有就太過了，而政府養(yǎng)老金投資基金在東京簡(jiǎn)陋的辦事處就是如此。 For Mr Abe, geeing up the fund is part of his plan to revive Japan s economy, 對(duì)安倍來說，帶動(dòng)養(yǎng)老基金發(fā)展就如同日本中央銀行在2023年4月大力推行的超寬松貨幣政策一樣， alongside a radical monetary easing which the Bank of Japan began in earnest in April 2023. 是他日本經(jīng)濟(jì)振興計(jì)劃的一部分。 As well as defeating deflation, Mr Abe seeks to boost risk-taking in the economy. 除了對(duì)付通貨緊縮，安倍還在尋求方法來鼓勵(lì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)承擔(dān)更多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 The planned changes to the fund also include demanding better corporate governance fromJapan s large companies. 養(yǎng)老基金改革計(jì)劃中還包括要求日本大型企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)更好的公司治理。 Already, the markets are anticipating the effect of the slow shift in direction. 市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)預(yù)見到了這次緩慢的方向性轉(zhuǎn)變可能帶來的影響。 GPIF s influence is amplified by other public pension investors following its lead. GPIF造成的影響隨著其他公共養(yǎng)老金投資機(jī)構(gòu)的跟風(fēng)而進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。 The fund lowered the weight of Japanese government bonds from 62% in its portfolio inMarch 2023 to 55% at the close of the year, 該基金已經(jīng)將投資組合中日本國(guó)債的比重從2023年3月的62%降低到了年底時(shí)的55%， putting most of the moneyroughly 8 trillioninto local and foreign shares instead. 并把這些資金中的大部分資金，約有8萬億日元，投入到了國(guó)內(nèi)外股票中。 The GPIF s shift may have contributed to the giddy rise of Japan s stockmarket, GPIF的轉(zhuǎn)型可能導(dǎo)致了日本股票市場(chǎng)的突然上漲， which was one of the best-performing rich-country bourses in 2023. 使其成為2023年度富有國(guó)家中表現(xiàn)最好的股票交易所。 For investors, the likelihood that the GPIF will continue shifting towards equities is aconvincing reason to buy Japanese shares. GPIF繼續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)向股票市場(chǎng)的趨勢(shì)使得投資者大膽地買入股票。 That in turn reinforces Mr Abe s will to enact the reform. 這也反過來實(shí)現(xiàn)了安倍推動(dòng)改革的愿望。 So far this year the Nikkei s rise, 日經(jīng)指數(shù)的上漲是本屆政府受到廣泛歡迎的原因之一， an important contributor to the government s broad popularity, has stalled. 不過目前，這股增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭已經(jīng)停止。 But for every equity punter cheering on the reform, 和股票持有者一致對(duì)改革拍手稱快不同， there is a JGB holder fretful about the eventual impact on prices if the asset class s biggestbacker continues to sell off. 一位國(guó)債持有者對(duì)于國(guó)債最大持有者的持續(xù)拋售對(duì)于其價(jià)格的影響感到非常擔(dān)憂。 Investors have long predicted a meltdown in the Japanese bond market, given that itspublic debt stands at nearly 240% of GDP. 一直以來，投資者們都預(yù)測(cè)日本債券市場(chǎng)可能暴跌，因?yàn)槿毡镜膰?guó)債達(dá)到了GDP的240%之巨。 One explanation of why the cost of borrowing for the government has remained low is thatJGBs are chiefly held by loyal local banks and by public pension funds, 而國(guó)債利率一直維持在低水平是由于日本國(guó)債的持有者主要是忠誠(chéng)的國(guó)內(nèi)銀行以及公共養(yǎng)老金基金， rather than by foreigners who would demand a higher risk premium. 而非要求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益的國(guó)外機(jī)構(gòu)。 Yet the landscape is changing as retirees draw down their savings, meaning thatinstitutional holders will become still more important. 然而隨著退休人員減少了他們的儲(chǔ)蓄，形勢(shì)將發(fā)生改變，這些機(jī)構(gòu)持有者變得更為重要了。 Ominously, Japan s current account has moved into deficit. 一個(gè)不詳?shù)念A(yù)兆是，日本的財(cái)政已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了赤字。 For the time being, the monetary easing undertaken by the Bank of Japan will more thanoffset the effect of any bond sales by the GPIF. 目前，日本中央銀行實(shí)行的貨幣寬松政策能夠輕松抵消GPIF出售國(guó)債帶來的影響。 So now is exactly the right moment for the fund to sell with no fear of triggering a broadersell-off, argues Takatoshi Ito, 眼下正是基金賣出國(guó)債的大好時(shí)機(jī)，而不用擔(dān)心引起大量賣出。 the chairman of the government-backed panel on the GPIF. 所以GPIF的政府顧問團(tuán)主席伊藤隆敏認(rèn)為。 Yet though the fund may at last escape its duty of holding oodles of government debt, 該基金或許最終難免逃避持有大量國(guó)家債券的職責(zé)， the shift could exacerbate problems once the central bank starts eventually to withdrawfrom its quantitative easing. 不過一旦中央銀行最終停止超寬松貨幣政策，這種轉(zhuǎn)型將使情況進(jìn)一步惡化。 The partial withdrawal of the GPIF from the market, says Naka Matsuzawa, chiefstrategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, may contribute to a crisis later on. 野村證券首席策略師Naka Matsuzawa認(rèn)為，GPIF在市場(chǎng)上部分撤資會(huì)引起后續(xù)的蕭條。 When in December Mr Ito called for a radical cut in the GPIF s bond portfolio from 55%down to 35%, yields on JGBs temporarily rose. 去年12月，伊藤呼吁GPIF將債券投資比重由55%大幅度減少到35%時(shí)，日本國(guó)債的收益曾短期上升。 The basic arguments for overhauling the fund are persuasive. 改革養(yǎng)老基金的基本論點(diǎn)非常有說服力。 With an ageing population, meaning the fund is already paying out more in benefits than itreceives in contributions, 隨著老齡化加劇，基金已經(jīng)開始入不敷出了。 it can ill afford to settle for a low-risk, low-returns approach. 如果繼續(xù)采用低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、低收益的投資策略，基金可能會(huì)付不出養(yǎng)老金來。 Its strategy stands in contrast to pension pots in Canada and Australia, for example, whichare given leeway to be more daring. 該基金的策略和諸如加拿大或澳大利亞的養(yǎng)老金機(jī)構(gòu)相反，這些養(yǎng)老基金擁有承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的余地。 They also regularly badger managers of the firms whose shares they own. 同時(shí)它們還監(jiān)督所持股票的公司的經(jīng)理人們。
